Latin America Data Response Brazil Manufacturing PMI (Jan.) Brazil’s manufacturing PMI rose to a 12-month high in January but we wouldn’t read too much into this – the relationship between the headline PMI and the hard monthly data on industrial production is... 2nd February 2015 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Colombia: interest rate cuts still on the cards Interest rates in Colombia were left unchanged at 4.50% on Friday but, while the accompanying statement remained relatively balanced, the downward revision to this year’s GDP growth forecast suggests... 2nd February 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Activity Monitor BRICs remain the EM weak spot Our GDP Tracker suggests that aggregate EM GDP expanded at a modest pace of just over 4% y/y in November as the BRIC economies continued to disappoint. Meanwhile, the latest activity figures provide... 30th January 2015 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Banxico on hold but rate cuts still not out of the question Interest rates in Mexico were left unchanged at 3.0% last night and concerns amongst policymakers about the weakness of the peso suggest that cuts are unlikely in the very near-term. For our part, we... 30th January 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update How exposed are EMs to contagion from Greece? The fact that the mounting concerns about Greece’s future within the euro-zone have had only a limited impact on financial markets across the emerging world appears to reflect the belief that problems... 29th January 2015 · 1 min read
Latin America Data Response Chile Retail Sales, Ind. Prod. & Copper Prod. (Dec.) December’s activity data suggest that economic growth in Chile recovered in the fourth quarter of last year. But the bigger picture is that growth over 2014 as a whole was probably just 1.8%, the... 29th January 2015 · 1 min read
EM Valuations Monitor Will the surge in the EMBI+ spread be reversed? The “stripped” spread over US Treasuries of the JP Morgan EMBI+ Index of emerging market dollar-denominated government bonds has risen by a further 40bp over the past month to around 4.2%, well above... 28th January 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Focus What do lower oil prices mean for the emerging world? The collapse in global oil prices will provide a boost to most economies in the emerging world. However, it will come at the cost of weaker growth in the Middle East, and deep recessions in Russia and... 28th January 2015 · 1 min read
Latin America Chart Pack Brazil’s inflation outlook diverges from the pack Data released over the past month have highlighted the contrasting outlook for inflation in Brazil compared with that of the rest of the region. After a brief period within the central bank’s target... 27th January 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Divergence in EM inflation to widen further in 2015 Inflation has diverged significantly across the emerging world over the past few months. While some economies have slipped into deflation, in a number of countries consumer prices are rising at a... 27th January 2015 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Focus Banxico can cut interest rates even as the Fed begins to hike We think the prevailing view that close economic ties with the US will force Mexico to raise interest rates if, as expected, the Fed starts to tighten later this year is wrong. Indeed, with lower oil... 23rd January 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Emerging Market Consumer Snapshot (Q1 2015) Lower oil prices should provide a welcome boost to incomes, and hence consumption, in large parts of the emerging world. We are particularly upbeat about the outlook for consumers in China, India, the... 23rd January 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update ECB QE and what it means for emerging markets The programme of asset purchases announced by the European Central Bank (ECB) earlier today was larger than had been expected only a few days ago, but fears that it could fuel destabilising inflows to... 22nd January 2015 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Brazil’s central bank suggests more hikes to come The big news from yesterday’s central bank meeting in Brazil isn’t the decision to raise interest rates to a three-year high of 12.25% - this was expected by pretty much everyone. Instead, the major... 22nd January 2015 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Falling commodity prices weigh on markets Latin America’s financial markets have suffered so far this year following fresh declines in the prices of a number of the region’s commodity exports – notably copper and oil. Most equities and... 21st January 2015 · 1 min read
Global Economic Outlook Oiling the wheels Global growth has slowed in recent months, but we still expect world GDP to expand by just over 3% this year and next. The slump in oil prices should have a positive impact overall, even though it... 21st January 2015 · 1 min read