Emerging Europe Economics Update Falling energy prices push many EMs into deflation Concerns over deflation have started to resurface across the emerging world. But the latest deceleration in inflation has been driven by last year’s plunge in oil prices. Accordingly, we continue to... 27th February 2015 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Brazilian real hits weakest level in a decade The Brazilian real has tumbled to its weakest level against the dollar since 2005 in recent days. We suspect that this has more to do with deteriorating economic fundamentals and suggestions from... 26th February 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Activity Monitor EM slowdown continues Our GDP Tracker suggests that aggregate EM GDP growth has dropped to just 4.0% y/y – a low not seen since the aftermath of the global financial crisis in 2009. Much of the latest slowdown appears to... 26th February 2015 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Not much cause for concern in Mexico’s current account Mexico’s current account deficit narrowed to 2.1% of GDP on a four-quarter sum in Q4 and, with the worst of the falls in oil prices now behind us, we think it could narrow a touch further to about 1.5... 25th February 2015 · 1 min read
Latin America Chart Pack Latin America has turned a corner, but recovery is uneven Growth in Latin America appears to have picked up in recent months. Our proprietary GDP Tracker suggests that the region’s economy expanded by about 1.5% y/y in the fourth quarter of last year, having... 25th February 2015 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Investors shrug off risks from Greece Despite the resurgent risk of a Greek exit from the euro-zone, investors have so far remained relatively relaxed about the possible effect on emerging markets. Admittedly, there were further net... 25th February 2015 · 1 min read
Latin America Data Response Brazil IPCA-15 Consumer Prices (Feb.) A further sharp rise in Brazilian inflation in the first half of February has tipped the balance towards another 50bp increase in the Selic interest rate at next month’s central bank meeting, rather... 24th February 2015 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Colombia: case for interest rate cuts building Interest rates in Colombia were left unchanged at 4.50% on Friday but a slightly more dovish tone in the accompanying statement, combined with the announcement of budget cuts over the weekend... 23rd February 2015 · 1 min read
Latin America Data Response Peru GDP (Q4) Although annual GDP growth in Peru dropped to a five-year low in the fourth quarter of last year, an encouraging rebound in investment and private consumption drove a sharp pick-up in the quarterly... 20th February 2015 · 1 min read
Latin America Data Response Mexico GDP (Q4) Mexican GDP growth accelerated to 2.6% y/y in the fourth quarter of last year, but the economy has yet to really take off. With fiscal policy set to be tightened further over the course of this year... 20th February 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update “Grexit” and what it might mean for EMs The impact on EMs of a Greek exit from the euro-zone would depend on the extent to which policymakers in Europe were able to limit the wider financial fallout. A “managed” exit would create... 20th February 2015 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Supply prospects boost cotton but weigh on arabica Agricultural commodities have faced a number of opposing pressures over the last month, including the further strengthening of the US dollar and the partial recovery in the price of crude oil. But... 20th February 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Chart Pack Regional inflation heading in opposite directions Inflation across the emerging world has been heading in different directions in recent months. In Latin America and Emerging Europe it has risen, led by increases in regulated prices in Brazil and the... 19th February 2015 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Counting the cost of the Petrobras scandal It’s difficult to be precise, but we think the direct impact of the corruption scandal at Petrobras, including the effects of reduced investment by the company and others that have been implicated... 19th February 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Private debt in EMs: big risk or damp squib? Concerns about the rapid growth of private sector debt in EMs have resurfaced in recent days. Our view remains unchanged: fears that a debt crisis will engulf the entire emerging world are overdone... 17th February 2015 · 1 min read
Latin America Data Response Peru Economic Activity (Dec.) December’s activity data suggest that economic growth in Peru dropped to a five-year low in the fourth quarter of last year. A fiscal stimulus will start to bear fruit in early 2015, but weak data... 16th February 2015 · 1 min read
