Latin America Economics Focus

Will Chile seize the green transition opportunity?

Chile is frequently identified as one of the main beneficiaries of global efforts to put economies on a greener footing, but we doubt that the country will reap the full benefits of this trend. Chile...

6th February 2024 · 21 mins read

Latin America Economics Weekly

Milei’s setback, Venezuela’s sanction, new rate forecasts

Argentine President Milei's ambitious stabilisation plan suffered a major blow in the past week and flipping the primary balance back into surplus is now looking increasingly difficult. Elsewhere...

2nd February 2024 · 7 mins read

Event

EM Drop-In: Easing cycles, debt risks, and the outlook for EM bonds

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While developed market central banks pontificate over the timing of rate cuts, the loosening cycle among emerging markets is well underway and gathering pace.

Latin America Economics Update

What next for Mexican inflation and Banxico?

Inflation in Mexico has dropped back over the past year but rapid wage growth continues to fuel strong underlying price pressures and means that the headline rate won’t return to Banxico’s 2-4%...

1st February 2024 · 4 mins read

Latin America Economics Update

Lat Am easing cycles show increasing divergence

While Latin American central banks seemed to act in unison when raising interest rates (albeit with Brazil a bit ahead of the pack), the raft of interest rate decisions in the region yesterday...

1st February 2024 · 4 mins read

Climate Economics Monthly

Polluter-pays principle to become more mainstream

Amid a flurry of news and action in carbon markets in recent months, this note examines the details and implications of developments around the world.

31st January 2024 · 5 mins read

Latin America Economics Update

Panama to lose its shine amid worsening growth outlook

Panama’s time as a Latin American growth star is set to come to an end this year. This will have a knock-on effect on the government’s revenues and means that the public debt ratio is set to rise...

31st January 2024 · 3 mins read

Latin America Rapid Response

Mexico GDP (Q4 Provisional)

The sharper-than-expected slowdown in Mexico’s GDP growth, to just 0.1% q/q in Q4, is likely to be followed by continued sluggish growth over the coming quarters. At the margin, the data increase the...

30th January 2024 · 2 mins read

Latin America Economics Weekly

Brazil’s re-industrialisation, Banxico, shipping dashboards

The Brazilian government’s announcement of a new industrial plan this week points to greater state intervention in the economy that will do little to alleviate the country’s productivity problem...

26th January 2024 · 8 mins read

Latin America Rapid Response

Brazil IPCA-15 (January 2024)

The slightly larger-than-expected decline in Brazilian inflation in the first half of this month, to 4.5% y/y, seals the deal on another 50bp cut in the Selic rate (to 11.25%) at next week’s central...

26th January 2024 · 2 mins read

Latin America Chart Pack

Latin America Chart Pack (January 2024)

Our Latin America Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments. Mexico and Brazil’s economies appear to have struggled towards the end of Q4 – a trend we...

25th January 2024 · 1 min read

Latin America Economics Focus

Brazil: five questions for 2024

Brazil’s economy and financial markets have provided a positive surprise over the past 12-18 months. This Focus answers five key questions that will determine whether 2024 will be chalked up as a...

24th January 2024 · 15 mins read

Capital Daily

Latin American equities may remain laggards

While we expect equities around the world to rebound – as a stock market bubble inflates on the back of growing hype around AI – we suspect that Latin American stock markets will keep lagging.

24th January 2024 · 5 mins read

Latin America Rapid Response

Mexico Bi-Weekly CPI (Jan.)

The jump in Mexico’s inflation to a higher-than-expected 4.9% y/y in the first half of January was entirely due to a particularly sharp rise in agricultural goods inflation. But it probably means the...

24th January 2024 · 2 mins read

Latin America Economics Weekly

El Niño’s mixed blessings, Argentina’s FX reserves, Pemex

Projections released this week highlight that El Niño-related rainfall will provide some relief to Argentina’s key agricultural sector, with bumper corn and soy harvests likely. Higher agricultural...

19th January 2024 · 5 mins read