Latin America Data Response Peru Economic Activity (Apr.) The stronger-than-expected Peruvian economic activity data for April were encouraging and, while the monthly numbers are volatile, figures released over the past few months show a clear trend towards... 15th June 2015 · 1 min read
Latin America Data Response Colombia GDP (Q1) The slowdown in GDP growth in Colombia in the first quarter was not as bad as some had feared, but it was still a weak outturn. And with the full effects of the fall in oil prices yet to feed through... 12th June 2015 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Policymakers in Chile and Peru likely to hold fire until 2016 Interest rates in Chile and Peru were left unchanged last night and with both economies in the early stages of recovery, policymakers are likely to delay rate hikes until next year, even if the Fed... 12th June 2015 · 1 min read
Latin America Data Response Mexico Industrial Production (Apr.) The slowdown in annual industrial production growth in Mexico in April was due overwhelmingly to a renewed downturn in the mining sector. In contrast, there are tentative signs that the manufacturing... 11th June 2015 · 1 min read
EM Markets Chart Pack What next for EM dollar-denominated sovereign bonds? Emerging market dollar-denominated government bonds have significantly underperformed their local currency counterparts since the end of April. However, this has generally been due to a surge in... 11th June 2015 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Latin America & Fed tightening: risks revisited Several economies in Latin America have large current account deficits that could leave them vulnerable as and when the Fed starts to raise interest rates. The risks in Brazil are, by now, well known... 10th June 2015 · 1 min read
Latin America Data Response Brazil Consumer Prices (May) The larger-than-expected rise in Brazilian inflation to 8.5% y/y last month was driven entirely by an increase in food inflation as well as regulated price hikes. Meanwhile, the infrastructure... 10th June 2015 · 1 min read
Latin America Data Response Mexico Consumer Prices (May) If there were any lingering concerns that the weaker peso might trigger a rise in inflation in Mexico, the fact that CPI fell to below its 3% target last month should quash them. This supports our... 9th June 2015 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update What next for crisis-stricken Venezuela? With Venezuela’s economic crisis intensifying, attention is starting to focus on how the country might get out of this mess. Two options have been suggested in recent weeks – one is the establishment... 9th June 2015 · 1 min read
Latin America Data Response Chile Consumer Prices (May) The further decline in inflation in Chile last month means that the annual rate is now right on the upper bound of the target range, having spent over a year above the 4% threshold. The continued fall... 8th June 2015 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Mexico elections: a glass half-full Elections in Mexico on Sunday delivered a broadly market-positive result, with the coalition led by the ruling PRI Party retaining its majority in Congress. But while this should ensure that Mexico... 8th June 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Oil windfall felt unevenly across EMs The fall in oil prices hasn’t so far been the boon for household spending in the emerging world that might have been expected, but it does appear to have contributed to stronger private consumption in... 8th June 2015 · 1 min read
Latin America Data Response Chile IMACEC (Apr.) The smaller-than-expected increase in Chile’s IMACEC activity indicator in April was almost entirely due to severe floods in the north of the country. Sharp falls in mining and construction, caused by... 5th June 2015 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Brazil hikes rates; attention now turns to Inflation Report The decision by Brazil’s monetary policy committee (COPOM) to raise interest rates by another 50bp to 13.75% was expected, but the fact that the accompanying statement was left unchanged from the last... 4th June 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update EM manufacturing PMIs point to modest signs of improvement May’s manufacturing PMIs brought the first signs that the recent slump in manufacturing across the emerging world may be bottoming out. But there remain huge differences in performance. May’s... 2nd June 2015 · 1 min read
Latin America Data Response Brazil Industrial Production (Apr.) We’re running out of words to describe just how bad conditions are in Brazil’s industrial sector. The fall in production in April means that industry has now contracted in five of the past six months... 2nd June 2015 · 1 min read
