Emerging Markets Economics Update Grexit, the euro-crisis and the risks for EMs Beyond a handful of economies in Emerging Europe, the direct links between Greece and the rest of the emerging world are limited. What matters for most EMs is not so much the crisis in Greece itself... 29th June 2015 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Argentine policymakers still up to their old tricks Argentina’s statistics office reported that GDP grew by 1.1% y/y in Q1, but independent data suggestthat although conditions have improved, there has not yet been a return to growth. And worryingly... 29th June 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Financial Risk Monitor Risks building in China, Venezuela in crisis The relief rally in Chinese equities prompted by additional policy stimulus has turned global sentiment around, but a sustained recovery in commodity prices will probably require hard evidence that... 26th June 2015 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Brazil inflation report suggests more tightening to come The Central Bank of Brazil’s Q2 Inflation Report gives the clearest indication yet that policymakersbelieve they have more work to do in the fight against inflation. We’ve pencilled in another... 26th June 2015 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Changes to Brazil’s inflation target reinforce hawkish message The changes announced by Brazil’s government to the central bank’s inflation target are small in thegrand scheme of things but reinforce the overall message that policymakers are serious about getting... 26th June 2015 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Lat Am markets shrug off threat of Fed hikes Markets in Latin America have shrugged off signs that the US Fed will begin to raise interest rates over the coming months. While most currencies have weakened in recent weeks, the falls have been... 26th June 2015 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Focus Argentina: runners and riders in the race to replace Cristina With Cristina Kirchner constitutionally barred from running for a third consecutive term as president of Argentina in October’s elections, hopes of a shift towards more market-friendly policymaking... 25th June 2015 · 1 min read
Frontier Markets Wrap European frontiers vulnerable to mounting threat of “Grexit” The growing threat of a Greek exit from the euro-zone has cast a shadow over the outlook for European frontier markets. Admittedly, the reaction in financial markets has so far been muted. And the... 25th June 2015 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Colombian policymakers unlikely to follow the Fed The decision by Colombia’s central bank to leave interest rates unchanged at 4.50% last night was not a surprise – but what was more notable was that, given the economy’s large current account deficit... 25th June 2015 · 1 min read
Latin America Data Response Mexico IGAE (Apr.) & Bi-Weekly CPI (Jun.) Activity data from Mexico for April suggest that, after a weak Q1, the economy has continued to struggle at the start of Q2. In better news, inflation data to the middle of the month, also released... 24th June 2015 · 1 min read
Latin America Chart Pack Lat Am markets shrug off threat of Fed hikes Markets in Latin America have shrugged off signs that the US Fed will begin to raise interest rates over the coming months. While most currencies have weakened in recent weeks, the falls have been... 24th June 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Chart Pack EMs can weather Fed lift-off – problems could come later With a Fed rate hike sometime this year now widely anticipated, we suspect that any volatility in EM markets when the Fed finally raises rates should prove short-lived. The much bigger risk for... 23rd June 2015 · 1 min read
Latin America Data Response Brazil IPCA-15 (Jun.) & Econ. Act. (Apr.) Brazil’s economic data are going from bad to worse. Figures to the middle of this month suggest that inflation is now running at close to 9% y/y. Meanwhile, the central bank’s Economic Activity... 19th June 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Trade Monitor Weak EM exports keep concerns over global demand alive Most of the weakness in emerging market exports in recent months can be pinned on the impact of lower commodity prices and the strength of the US dollar. But there are lingering concerns surrounding... 18th June 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Fed tightening and EMs: risks revisited Yesterday’s statement by US Fed officials suggests that the FOMC is still on course to raise interest rates at September’s meeting. EM financial markets have taken this in their stride today and... 18th June 2015 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update A closer look at Chile’s current account improvement Chile is the only country in Latin America that has managed to reduce its current account deficit since the “Taper Tantrum” of 2013, which makes the economy less exposed to tightening external... 16th June 2015 · 1 min read
