EM Markets Chart Pack Equity sell-off is a Chinese, not EM, phenomenon Despite a rebound in recent days, Chinese equities have slumped since the middle June. Still, the Shanghai Composite is some 90% higher than a year ago, and there is little sign that the sell-off has... 10th July 2015 · 1 min read
Latin America Data Response Mexico Consumer Prices (Jun.) June’s inflation data from Mexico contain no signs that a weaker peso is fuelling price pressures. With inflation still below target, policymakers have room to keep interest rates low even if the Fed... 9th July 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Greece, China and the spillovers to EMs Recent events in China and Greece have generated plenty of gloomy headlines about the spillovers to emerging markets but so far the reaction in EM markets has been relatively limited. One reason could... 9th July 2015 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Ethanol demand in Brazil to support sugar price Rising ethanol output in Brazil to meet domestic demand should help lift the price of sugar this year. We forecast the benchmark price at end-year at 13.5 US cents per pound, up from 12.3 cents today. 9th July 2015 · 1 min read
Latin America Data Response Brazil & Chile Consumer Prices (Jun.) The rise in inflation in Brazil to 8.9% y/y last month probably seals the deal for another 50bp hike in the benchmark Selic interest rate at this month’s COPOM meeting. Elsewhere, inflation in Chile... 8th July 2015 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Political crisis deepens in Brazil Brazil’s political crisis has deepened over the past few weeks, with the latest testimonies in the so-called “car wash” probe bringing allegations of corruption at Petrobras a step closer to the door... 6th July 2015 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Rising demand and tighter supply to lift arabica prices High Brazilian exports have kept the coffee market well supplied and prices down. But we think lower global stocks and continued demand growth will support prices over the second half of the year. 3rd July 2015 · 1 min read
EM Valuations Monitor Valuations suggest another currency slump is unlikely Emerging market (EM) currencies were remarkably calm in June despite growing turmoil in the euro-zone. Our synthetic EM exchange rate against the dollar depreciated by 0.5% last month. But the big... 2nd July 2015 · 1 min read
Latin America Data Response Brazil Industrial Production (May) The 0.6% m/m increase in Brazil industrial production in May supports the message from last month’s PMI (released yesterday) that the economy could be nearing a bottom. We wouldn’t get too carried... 2nd July 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Slump in BRICs manufacturing bottoming out June’s manufacturing PMIs suggest that the slump in manufacturing across the BRIC economies may be bottoming out. It’s a mixed picture across smaller EMs, with those in Central Europe doing well, but... 1st July 2015 · 1 min read
Latin America Data Response Brazil & Mexico Manufacturing PMI (Jun.) June’s manufacturing PMIs from Latin America were the proverbial mixed bag. The good news is that the pace of contraction in Brazil’s manufacturing sector seems to be easing. More ominously, the PMI... 1st July 2015 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Focus After the commodities boom – what next for Latin America? The big falls in global commodity prices are probably behind us but, in the absence of a renewedboom, the growth outlook for much of Latin America will remain depressed. 1st July 2015 · 1 min read
Latin America Chart Pack China still the key risk for Lat Am While many parts of the emerging and developed world are sweating over the potential fallout from a looming Greek exit from the Euro-zone, a deeper downturn in China remains the key external risk for... 30th June 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Activity Monitor EM growth still slowing, but non-BRICs are picking up EM growth continues to slow and, according to our GDP Tracker, is now at its weakest pace in almost sixyears. However, the slowdown has almost entirely been driven by further weakness in the BRICs... 30th June 2015 · 1 min read
Latin America Data Response Chile Retail Sales, Ind. Prod. & Copper Prod. (May) Activity data from Chile released today were a mixed bag – while retail spendingremained buoyant, industrial output fell sharply. All told, the recent run of softerdata means that our GDP Tracker is... 30th June 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update A selection of our key calls This note summarises our key calls for emerging markets, emphasising where we differ from the consensus. Detailed projections (with specific numbers) are available in our regular publications on the... 30th June 2015 · 1 min read
