Latin America Economics Weekly

Mexico’s election campaign, Brazil’s G20 damp squib

Campaigning for Mexico’s election on 2nd June officially kicks off today. The presidential front-runner, Claudia Sheinbaum, will probably continue the social policies of her predecessor but is likely...

1st March 2024 · 7 mins read

Latin America Rapid Response

Brazil GDP (Q4 2023)

The stagnation in Brazil’s GDP in Q4 and the decline in household consumption confirmed that the economy lost momentum sharply and, while we expect a pick-up in growth in the coming quarters, we’re...

1st March 2024 · 2 mins read

Latin America Economics Update

Mexico: Amlo leaving public finances on a slippery slope

Mexico’s President López Obrador’s cloak of fiscal prudence is being shed this year as Morena tries to bolster its support ahead of June’s election. As some of the factors supportive of the public...

27th February 2024 · 3 mins read

Latin America Rapid Response

Brazil IPCA-15 (February 2024)

The breakdown of Brazil’s February mid-month inflation reading of 4.5% y/y showed that core services inflation remained elevated. And while further 50bp cuts in the Selic rate next month (to 10.75%)...

27th February 2024 · 2 mins read

Latin America Economics Weekly

Venezuelan inflation, Mexico’s slowdown

Inflation and activity figures out of Mexico this week bolster our view that consensus growth forecasts for 2024 look a bit too optimistic and that Banxico will start its monetary easing cycle next...

23rd February 2024 · 6 mins read

Latin America Chart Pack

Latin America Chart Pack (February 2024)

Our Latin America Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments. The latest monthly activity data suggest that Mexico and Brazil ended 2023 on a weak note, a...

22nd February 2024 · 1 min read

Latin America Rapid Response

Mexico Bi-Weekly CPI (Feb.)

The drop back in Mexico’s headline inflation rate to 4.5% y/y in the first half of February leaves Banxico on course to begin an easing cycle at March’s Board meeting. That said, the rise in core...

22nd February 2024 · 2 mins read

Emerging Markets Economics Update

Unpacking this year’s EM bond issuance bonanza

EM sovereigns have issued a record amount of FX debt at the start of this year, capitalising on a window created by the decline in US Treasury yields since October. The issuance has been concentrated...

20th February 2024 · 4 mins read

Latin America Economics Update

Brazil: inflation pressures starting to re-surface

Headline inflation in Brazil has declined in recent months, but a deeper dig into the data shows that underlying price pressures are starting to build again. Although another 50bp cut in the Selic...

20th February 2024 · 4 mins read

Long Run Economic Outlook

AI productivity boom tempered by protectionist threat

The AI revolution should deliver substantial productivity gains in the coming decade, particularly in advanced economies. But with working age populations falling in key areas and China’s economy in...

20th February 2024 · 1 hr, 9 mins read

Latin America Economics Weekly

Argentine inflation, Pemex’s debt problem

Argentina’s President Javier Milei has made tackling rampant inflation – which data out this week showed is now running at over 250% – a key priority, but the historical record in Latin America...

16th February 2024 · 5 mins read

Latin America Rapid Response

Colombia GDP (Q4 2023)

The stagnation in Colombia’s GDP in Q4 confirmed that the economy remained very weak at the end of last year and we think the recovery this year will be slower than most anticipate. At the margin, the...

15th February 2024 · 2 mins read

Latin America Economics Update

Milei’s shock therapy hits congressional reality

Argentine President Javier Milei’s ambitious economic reform plans have quickly run into political obstacles. There’s still plenty of fiscal tightening that Milei is likely to undertake and there have...

15th February 2024 · 5 mins read

Latin America Economics Update

Pemex debt fears back in the spotlight

Moody’s downgrade of Pemex at the end of last week reinforces the view we set out last year that the next government in Mexico will prove to be less supportive of the troubled state energy company...

12th February 2024 · 4 mins read

Latin America Economics Weekly

Copom’s challenges, Amlo’s amendments

This week’s release of the minutes to the latest Copom meeting, January CPI figures and December budget data support our view that Brazil’s central bank will lower interest rates by less than most...

9th February 2024 · 6 mins read