Emerging Markets Economics Update Recovery in EM manufacturing continues, but remains uneven November’s PMI surveys, published today, point to a continued but extremely patchy recovery across the EM world. Industry seems to be doing better in Emerging Asia and Emerging Europe but the PMIs for... 1st December 2015 · 1 min read
Latin America Data Response Brazil & Mexico Manufacturing PMIs (Nov.) The further fall in Brazil’s manufacturing PMI in November, to a fresh five-year low of 43.8, adds to evidence that the economy is yet to bottom out. The data are broadly consistent with industrial... 1st December 2015 · 1 min read
Latin America Data Response Brazil GDP (Q3) Third quarter GDP data from Brazil made for grim reading, with the economy contracting by a larger-than-expected 1.7% q/q and falls earlier in the year revised higher. As a result, it seems likely... 1st December 2015 · 1 min read
Latin America Chart Pack Argentina: Macri’s economic team takes shape The election of Mauricio Macri , the reformist candidate in Argentina’s presidential election, has transformed the country’s economic outlook. The result was largely anticipated – markets had jumped... 30th November 2015 · 1 min read
Latin America Data Response Chile Retail Sales, Ind. Prod. & Copper Prod. (Oct.) Weaker Chilean activity data for October underscore the gradual nature of the economic recovery. Nonetheless, it too early to worry about a renewed slowdown in GDP growth in Q4. 30th November 2015 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Colombia’s tightening cycle has further to run The smaller-than-expected 25bp hike in Colombia’s benchmark interest rate, to 5.50%, suggests that policymakers are starting to worry about the impact of tighter monetary policy on the economy. But... 30th November 2015 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Brazilian markets continue to recover Brazil’s financial markets have come under pressure in recent days following the escalation of corruption allegations at state-owned oil company Petrobras, but the bigger picture is that they have... 26th November 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Inflation now rising in more EMs than it is falling Although aggregate EM inflation edged down in October, the number of EM economies that recorded a rise in inflation last month exceeded those where it fell. We expect this trend to continue in 2016. 26th November 2015 · 1 min read
Latin America Economic Outlook Nearing the bottom We expect the economic downturn in Latin America to bottom out towards the turn of this year and conditions to improve in 2016. However, the recovery will be slow-going and uneven. For a start, the... 25th November 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Activity Monitor Brazil a weak link amid EM stabilisation Emerging market (EM) growth appears to have slowed a touch in September on the back of the deepening recession in Brazil. Even so, there are no signs of the collapse in broader EM growth that some... 24th November 2015 · 1 min read
Latin America Data Response Mexico Bi-Weekly Consumer Prices (Nov.) Weaker-than-expected Mexican inflation in the first half of November underscores the lack of price pressures in the economy. This reinforces our view that the central bank is likely to raise interest... 24th November 2015 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Brazil Sugar Production (1st Nov. – 16th Nov.) Figures released today by Brazil’s Sugarcane Industry Association, UNICA, show that 25.6 million tonnes of cane were harvested in the first half of November in the main South-Central cane-growing... 24th November 2015 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Macri victory in Argentine elections brightens economic outlook The election of pro-business candidate Mauricio Macri as Argentina’s new president is likely to herald a much-needed shift towards orthodox economic policymaking. In the near term, this is likely to... 23rd November 2015 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Argentina: change is nigh Opinion polls are pointing to a narrow victory for pro-reform candidate Mauricio Macri in Sunday’s presidential election in Argentina and, if he prevails, the outlook for the economy would undoubtedly... 20th November 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Focus Crisis or recovery? Concerns about the outlook for emerging markets look increasingly overdone. Pockets of vulnerability exist, but in our view EM growth is more likely to recover over the next 3-6 months than it is to... 19th November 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Chart Pack Commodity price slump produces mixed policy response The slump in commodity prices over the past year has meant central banks in net commodity exporting and importing countries have continued to follow different paths. Despite the hit to growth from... 19th November 2015 · 1 min read
