Latin America Economics Update New forecasts for Brazil In response to the deepening economic and political crisis in Brazil we are marking down some of our key forecasts. We now expect interest rates to be raised further, the currency to weaken a little... 5th January 2016 · 1 min read
Latin America Data Response Chile IMACEC (Nov.) Economic activity in Chile picked up in November, but even so, it looks like GDP growth over Q4 as a whole probably didn’t accelerate from Q3. 5th January 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update EM markets tumble but PMIs relatively reassuring Equities and currencies have weakened across the emerging world today but the latest economic data, in the form of the manufacturing PMIs, point to a further slight improvement in December. A fall in... 4th January 2016 · 1 min read
Latin America Data Response Brazil & Mexico Manufacturing PMIs (Dec.) The rise in Brazil’s headline manufacturing PMI in December provides a rare piece of good news for a country in the grip of both a deep recession and an escalating political crisis. Elsewhere, Mexico... 4th January 2016 · 1 min read
Frontier Markets Wrap Argentina goes orthodox The inauguration of President Mauricio Macri has brought about a shift towards more orthodox economic policymaking in Argentina. Over a decade of populist and interventionist macroeconomic policy has... 22nd December 2015 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Brazil’s housing and credit bubbles: the next shoe to drop? Investors in Brazil are understandably focussed on the economic implications of the recent change in Finance Minister and the impeachment proceedings against President Rousseff. But we think the way... 21st December 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Latest oil price fall will keep inflation lower for longer Inflation still looks likely to rise in most EMs next year, despite the recent slump in oil prices. However, the rebound will now be more gradual, which will allow central banks in most economies to... 21st December 2015 · 1 min read
Latin America Data Response Brazil IPCA-15 (Dec.) The stronger-than-expected rise in Brazilian inflation, to 10.7% y/y, in the first half of December was driven by an increase in food inflation that should ease by mid-2016. Nonetheless, the risk of... 18th December 2015 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Mexico & Chile hike, but tightening cycles to be gradual Last night’s decision by central banks in Mexico and Chile to hike interest rates suggests that the actions of the US Fed still hold sway with policymakers in Latin America. Nonetheless, we suspect... 18th December 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Activity Monitor EM growth steady as Fed starts to tighten Emerging market (EM) growth remained fairly stable in October, as it has for much of the year. Looking ahead, we expect EM growth to pick up a touch in 2016, even as the Fed tightens monetary policy. 17th December 2015 · 1 min read
Latin America Data Response Peru Economic Activity (Oct.) The weaker-than-expected rise in Peruvian economic activity in October suggests the recovery is still struggling to gain momentum. Nonetheless, there are some encouraging signs that the economy will... 15th December 2015 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Currencies shrug off looming Fed hike Currencies in Latin America appear to have shrugged off the prospect of a looming US interest rate hike, with most exchange rates broadly unchanged against the dollar month-to-date. The currencies of... 15th December 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Fed tightening & EMs: what to watch for The likelihood that the Fed will begin to raise interest rates this week has sparked fresh concerns about the knock-on impact on emerging markets. However, we think that most EMs are now well placed... 14th December 2015 · 1 min read
Latin America Chart Pack Economics takes a back seat to politics The past month in Latin America has seen economics take a back seat to politics. The good news has come from Argentina, where the inauguration of Mauricio Macri as president has buoyed both hopes for... 14th December 2015 · 1 min read
Latin America Data Response Mexico Industrial Production (Oct.) The sharp slowdown in Mexican industrial production growth in October, to 0.5% y/y, was disappointing, but we don’t think this is the start of a renewed downturn in the sector. The data from month to... 11th December 2015 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Peru rate hike another step in gradual tightening cycle The Central Reserve Bank of Peru’s decision to follow up September’s surprise interest rate hike with a second 25bp hike, to 3.75%, shows that policymakers are still concerned about the persistence of... 11th December 2015 · 1 min read
