Emerging Markets Economics Chart Pack EM growth stable despite market slump Sentiment towards emerging markets has worsened since the start of the year amid mounting worries about the outlook in a number of key economies. Nevertheless, the latest data provide no evidence of a... 19th January 2016 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Venezuelan data confirm economy is in meltdown Venezuela’s central bank has released economic data for the first time since 2014 and the figures are predictably horrific. With oil prices now languishing below $30pb, and the country’s political... 18th January 2016 · 1 min read
Latin America Data Response Peru Economic Activity (Nov.) The strong rise in Peruvian economic activity in November gives the first clear sign that the economy picked-up in the final quarter of last year. As such, it looks like GDP probably grew by around 3... 15th January 2016 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Peru hikes & Chile holds, gradual tightening ahead The decision by Peru’s central bank to hike interest rates for a second consecutive month underlines its concerns about above-target inflation and we have brought forward our forecast for 50bp of... 15th January 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Trade Monitor Drop in EM exports still likely to ease this year EM exports continued to perform poorly at the tail-end of last year, but we think that the pace of contraction should at least ease over the course of 2016. 15th January 2016 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Warning signs from Colombia’s current account The widening of Colombia’s current account deficit in recent months is a major cause for concern and a key factor behind our below-consensus view that growth will slow further in 2016. 14th January 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update No sign (yet) of an EM credit crunch EM credit growth remains weak by its usual standards but there is no evidence (yet) of a widespread “credit crunch” that could be the precursor to a more serious downturn in economic activity. 14th January 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Emerging Markets Capital Flows Monitor Our Capital Flows Tracker shows that aggregate EM capital outflows rose to a record $270bn in the final quarter of last year, even more than during the depths of the global financial crisis. This was... 13th January 2016 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Argentina: Macri makes impressive start Mauricio Macri has made a strong start to his term as president of Argentina, tackling some of the country’s biggest macroeconomic distortions in his first month in office. There’s work still to do –... 12th January 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economic Outlook Crisis or recovery: what next for emerging economies? Many parts of the emerging world are facing a tough year in 2016. But the outlook is not as uniformly bleak as many assume and some important emerging economies could spring positive surprises. 11th January 2016 · 1 min read
Latin America Data Response Mexico Industrial Production (Nov.) The weaker-than-expected Mexican industrial production growth figure for November is not something to be overly concerned about – the slowdown was due entirely to a sharp drop in construction output... 11th January 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Debunking four myths about EMs Not so long ago we were among the most bearish commentators on emerging markets. But even we find some of the more recent gloomy headlines difficult to square with the evidence on the ground. In this... 8th January 2016 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Assessing policy risks in Brazil Fears that Brazil’s government will respond to a deepening recession by resorting to populist economic policies have surfaced over the past week. As things stand, we don’t think there is much evidence... 8th January 2016 · 1 min read
Latin America Data Response Brazil & Chile Consumer Prices (Dec.) The further rise in Brazilian inflation in December, to a 12-year high of 10.7% y/y, now means that anything less than a 50bp rate hike at this month’s COPOM meeting is likely to see financial markets... 8th January 2016 · 1 min read
Latin America Data Response Mexico Consumer Prices (Dec.) The further decline in Mexican inflation in December, to 2.1% y/y, underscores the lack of price pressures in the economy. Against this backdrop, we expect only modest monetary tightening in 2016... 7th January 2016 · 1 min read
Latin America Data Response Brazil Industrial Production (Nov.) The 12.4% y/y fall in Brazilian industrial production in November was even worse than October’s 11.1% y/y decline, and adds to evidence that the economy’s recession deepened in Q4. 7th January 2016 · 1 min read
