Emerging Markets Economics Update Can EMs exploit weaker currencies? EMs are much better placed now than in the past to weather potential problems caused by sharp drops in their currencies. But by the same token, those EMs that have seen the largest falls in their... 8th February 2016 · 1 min read
Latin America Data Response Chile Consumer Prices (Jan.) The surge in Chilean inflation in January was largely due to planned tax increases and had been anticipated. As such, we don’t expect it to a trigger a policy response from the central bank and... 8th February 2016 · 1 min read
Latin America Data Response Brazil Consumer Prices (Jan.) Brazilian inflation held steady at 10.7% y/y in January and, while the headline rate may now have peaked, it is likely to remain well above the central bank’s target this year. Accordingly, we see... 5th February 2016 · 1 min read
Latin America Data Response Mexico Manufacturing PMI (Jan.) The small fall in Mexico’s headline manufacturing PMI is a disappointing sign that the factory sector remained relatively weak at the start of 2016. However, we still expect conditions to improve over... 2nd February 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update EM PMI edges up January’s PMIs suggest that stabilisation in manufacturing across EMs continued at the start of the year. It’s particularly encouraging that conditions are no longer getting worse in Brazil and Russia... 1st February 2016 · 1 min read
Latin America Data Response Brazil Manufacturing PMI (Jan.) The rise in Brazil’s headline manufacturing PMI in January was encouraging, particularly given that it corroborates with other leading indicators which point to (very early) signs of stabilisation... 1st February 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Activity Monitor EM growth dips – but no sign of collapse Our GDP Tracker suggests that EM growth dipped again in November. However, this was driven overwhelmingly by a deepening downturn in Brazil – and more recent survey data have provided some hope that... 29th January 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Divergent inflation outlook The divergence in EM inflation looks set to persist throughout 2016. In Emerging Asia, Central Europe and parts of the Middle East, low oil prices will help keep inflation muted. But in some of the... 29th January 2016 · 1 min read
Latin America Data Response Mexico GDP (Q4, Prov.) The stronger-than-expected 2.5% y/y rise in Mexican GDP in Q4 confirmed that economic growth remained solid – if unspectacular – in the fourth quarter. We expect the economy to kick on this year as... 29th January 2016 · 1 min read
Latin America Data Response Chile Retail Sales, Ind. Prod. & Copper Prod. (Dec.) The weaker-than-expected Chilean activity data for December confirm that the economy slowed in Q4. Our GDP Tracker suggests the economy grew by a lacklustre 2.0% y/y over Q4 as a whole. 29th January 2016 · 1 min read
Latin America Chart Pack Making sense of the commodities rout The latest fall in global commodity prices has hit financial markets across the whole of Latin America but the economic impact will be more dispersed. Global energy prices have seen the biggest falls... 27th January 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Focus EM debt: recapping the risks The dangers posed by a rapid build-up in EM debt have come back into the spotlight in recent weeks. In this Focus we revisit the lessons from history. Three points stand out – with potentially ominous... 22nd January 2016 · 1 min read
Latin America Data Response Mexico Bi-Weekly Consumer Prices (Jan.) The jump in Mexican inflation in the first half of January, to 2.5% y/y (from 2.1% y/y in December) was due largely to unfavourable base effects and, as a result, is unlikely to change the outlook for... 22nd January 2016 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Commodities collapse triggers fresh rout Financial markets in Latin America have had a torrid start to this year. The renewed falls in commodity prices have been the main factor behind the latest falls in equities and currencies in the... 22nd January 2016 · 1 min read
Latin America Data Response Brazil IPCA-15 (Jan.) Today’s Brazilian inflation data, which showed that the headline rate held steady at 10.7% y/y in the first half of January, are likely to give policymakers at the central bank another reason to hold... 22nd January 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Talk of an EM currency war looks overdone A retreat to widespread competitive currency devaluations in emerging markets would certainly be a cause for concern but, despite recent claims to the contrary, there is so far little evidence to... 20th January 2016 · 1 min read
