Latin America Data Response Brazil IPCA-15 (Feb.) The rise in Brazilian inflation in the first half of this month is concerning, given that January’s data had suggested the headline rate was close to peaking. We still expect inflation to drop back... 23rd February 2016 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Peru’s economic recovery hits its stride The surge in Peruvian GDP growth in the final quarter of 2015 was partly due to the temporary boost from the opening of a new copper mine. Nonetheless, the wider economic recovery appears to be going... 22nd February 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Focus Was the EM boom built on sand? Rapid EM growth in the 2000s was driven by a wave of liberalising reforms that produced genuine economic transformation across the emerging world, but potential growth has now slowed. Accordingly... 19th February 2016 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Brazil: anatomy of a budget meltdown We estimate that only one-sixth of the jump in Brazil’s budget deficit over the past two years has been due to a drop in tax receipts. Instead, the bulk (five-sixths) has been due to a rise in... 19th February 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Trade Monitor Worst should be over for EM exports The value of EM exports dropped by more than a trillion dollars last year but the pace of contraction eased in Q4. We expect further improvements in 2016 as global demand strengthens. 19th February 2016 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Focus Has Brazil blown it? There are good reasons to think that the recession in Brazil – which is now the worst since at least the 1930s – should start to ease this year. But the good news ends here. While growth should return... 18th February 2016 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Venezuela’s economic measures too little too late The move by Venezuelan policymakers to devalue the official exchange rates and raise fuel prices will help to ease the pressure on the public finances, but the measures fall chronically short of what... 18th February 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Focus Are EM oil producers on the cusp of a crisis? A wave of debt defaults and financial stress in emerging market oil producers seems unlikely but, with energy prices set to stay low, growth is likely to be much weaker than most anticipate. Among the... 18th February 2016 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Mexico responds to market turmoil Expectations of lower inflation have probably played only a minor role in the fall in Treasury inflation compensation – the gap between the nominal yields of conventional Treasuries and the real... 17th February 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Emerging Markets Capital Flows Monitor Aggregate EM capital outflows stood at over $100bn in January and, on a quarterly rolling basis, they increased to a third of a trillion dollars, a record figure by some distance. This continued to be... 16th February 2016 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Peru hikes again as inflationary pressures build, Chile holds The Peruvian central bank’s decision to hike interest rates by 25bp for the third consecutive month, to 4.25%, as well as the more hawkish tone of the accompanying statement, point to concerns that... 12th February 2016 · 1 min read
Latin America Data Response Mexico Industrial Production (Dec.) Stagnant industrial output at the end of last year means that the sector probably added a meagre 0.1%-pt to overall GDP growth in Q4. Industry may remain under pressure in the near term, but we still... 11th February 2016 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Zika virus unlikely to have major economic impact The Zika virus has hit the headlines in recent weeks due to its rapid spread across Latin America and the suspected link with thousands of cases of serious birth defects in Brazil. But, while it is... 9th February 2016 · 1 min read
Latin America Data Response Mexico Consumer Prices (Jan.) The jump in Mexican inflation in January, to 2.6% y/y, from 2.1% y/y in December, was due to a sharp rise in food inflation, which is likely to have been driven in part by a weaker currency. But with... 9th February 2016 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Argentina debt offer encouraging, but more work still to do Argentina’s debt proposal to US holdout creditors is an encouraging development, but there are still a number of hurdles to overcome in order for the government to return to global capital markets. 8th February 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Can EMs exploit weaker currencies? EMs are much better placed now than in the past to weather potential problems caused by sharp drops in their currencies. But by the same token, those EMs that have seen the largest falls in their... 8th February 2016 · 1 min read
