Emerging Markets Economics Update EM commodity slowdown: cyclical or structural? The slump in growth in EM commodity producers partly reflects a deterioration in potential growth rates in these economies but is mainly the result of cyclical weakness caused by a collapse in their... 7th March 2016 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Is the latest rally in Brazilian equities another false dawn? Brazil’s economy is under the cosh, but the 30% rebound in the Bovespa since mid-January has made it one of the top performing equity markets in the emerging world. While we doubt that the stock... 7th March 2016 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update How alarming is the latest collapse in Brazil’s PMI? The collapse in Brazil’s Composite Manufacturing and Services PMI in February has grabbed plenty of headlines but it’s notable that it has not been repeated in other (more reliable) business surveys... 3rd March 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Manufacturing PMI surveys fall across EMs The fall in February’s manufacturing PMI surveys across emerging markets serves as a reminder that, while the worst for the industrial sectors in most EMs is probably behind us, conditions remain... 1st March 2016 · 1 min read
Latin America Data Response Brazil & Mexico Manufacturing PMIs (Feb.) The sharp drop in Brazil’s manufacturing PMI for February is particularly disappointing given that it follows a general improvement in the survey data for January, and has dealt a blow to hopes that... 1st March 2016 · 1 min read
Latin America Data Response Chile Retail Sales, Ind. Prod. & Copper Prod. (Jan.) Chile’s economy remained relatively weak in January as the industrial sector continued to struggle. While we expect conditions to improve over the course of this year, today’s data underscore the... 29th February 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Activity Monitor EM growth stable but subdued Our GDP Trackers suggest that aggregate EM growth was stable at the end of last year as a dip in Emerging Asia was offset by signs of recovery in Emerging Europe . The improvement in Emerging Europe... 26th February 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Price pressures from currency slumps set to fade Sharp falls in currencies pushed up inflation in Emerging Europe and Latin America last year. The impact in Emerging Europe has already started to unwind and we expect the same in Latin America before... 25th February 2016 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Policymakers step in to defend currencies Policymakers in Mexico and Colombia this month responded to the sharp falls in their currencies by hiking interest rates and stepping up intervention in foreign exchange markets. These moves appear to... 25th February 2016 · 1 min read
Latin America Chart Pack Fall in oil prices triggers fiscal responses The past month has seen governments in several countries in Latin America announce measures to repair some of the fiscal damage caused by lower commodity prices. The most impressive package came from... 24th February 2016 · 1 min read
Global Markets Focus Which EM equity markets are set to shine? Time will tell if the recent rebound in emerging market (EM) equities was a turning point, but we remain cautiously optimistic that they will outperform those in the developed world in 2016/17. 24th February 2016 · 1 min read
Frontier Markets Wrap Ukraine’s political crisis re-escalates Political tensions have once again come to the fore in Ukraine, putting the country’s IMF programme at risk. Although the government survived a no confidence vote, the ruling coalition has fallen... 24th February 2016 · 1 min read
Latin America Data Response Mexico Bi-Weekly Consumer Prices (Feb.) The further jump in Mexican inflation in the first half of February, to 2.9% y/y, from 2.5% y/y over January as a whole, was due to a rise in food inflation, which is typically volatile and should... 24th February 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Chart Pack Growing divergences among EMs Aggregate EM growth has continued to disappoint in recent months with signs of a renewed (albeit small) deceleration in the latest data. Perhaps more important though is the widening divergence in... 24th February 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update What next for EMs? Over the past week we have published a four-part series analysing the key issues that will shape the outlook for emerging markets. In this Update , we summarise the main messages. 23rd February 2016 · 1 min read
Latin America Data Response Mexico GDP (Q4) The final estimate of Q4 Mexican GDP confirmed that the economy grew by 2.5% y/y, but revisions to the back series show that the slowdown at the end of last year was sharper than previously thought... 23rd February 2016 · 1 min read
