Latin America Economics Update Mexico: 2017 budget cuts to keep fiscal deficit in check The Mexican government announced over the weekend preliminary plans to make additional cuts to government spending next year. This will keep the budget deficit in check against a backdrop of much... 4th April 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update EM Manufacturing PMI rises to strongest in a year The rise in the EM manufacturing PMI in March to its highest level in a year adds to evidence that economic conditions across the emerging world are improving. The pick-up in the survey in China is... 1st April 2016 · 1 min read
Latin America Data Response Brazil Ind. Prod. (Feb.) & Manufacturing PMI (Mar.) The sharp fall in Brazilian industrial production in February suggests that the economy was on course to contract in Q1 even before the more recent escalation in the country’s political crisis. The... 1st April 2016 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update New Argentine GDP data a step in the right direction 31st March 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Activity Monitor EM growth dragged down by Brazil Our GDP Tracker suggests that aggregate EM growth dipped at the start of this year, but this appears to have been driven by deepening problems in Brazil and a recent soft patch in India. China’s... 30th March 2016 · 1 min read
Latin America Chart Pack Still struggling Financial markets across Latin America have fared well over the past month but the incoming economic data suggest that the region is still struggling. Most of the attention has, of course, focussed on... 30th March 2016 · 1 min read
Latin America Data Response Chile Retail Sales, Ind. Prod. & Copper Prod. (Feb.) The better-than-expected Chilean activity data for February suggest that, after weakening significantly in recent months, the economy has started to stabilise. Nonetheless, growth is unlikely to pick... 30th March 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Inflation rises in commodity consumers but stays below target Seasonal factors pushed up food inflation in Asia last month, but the underlying picture is that inflation remains below target in commodity-consuming EMs in Asia as well as in Central Europe. In... 29th March 2016 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update PMDB exit leaves Dilma on the brink According to widespread reports, Brazil’s largest political party, the PMDB, will later today announce that it plans to leave government – leaving President Rousseff closer to impeachment, and paving... 29th March 2016 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update What next for Brazil interest rates? We expect the Central Bank of Brazil to shift its bias towards looser policy over the coming months, but both the timing and the size of any cuts in interest rates will be determined by what happens... 29th March 2016 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Markets rally, Brazilian assets outperform A recovery in global commodity prices has helped to support a broad-based rally in Latin America’s financial markets so far this month. Brazilian assets are down a little today but they have... 24th March 2016 · 1 min read
Frontier Markets Wrap Frontier financial markets recover some ground A combination of improving investor sentiment and a pick-up in global commodity prices has underpinned a recovery in frontier financial markets in recent weeks. Since reaching a two-year low in early... 24th March 2016 · 1 min read
Latin America Data Response Brazil IPCA-15 (Mar.) The larger-than-expected fall in Brazilian inflation in the first half of this month, to 10.0% y/y from 10.4% y/y over February as a whole, is encouraging. We expect inflation to continue to fall back... 23rd March 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Chart Pack EM markets bounce back strongly The last month has seen EM financial markets recover from their poor start to 2016. Our Synthetic EM Exchange Rate Index has rallied to its strongest level since November. Almost all EM currencies... 23rd March 2016 · 1 min read
Latin America Data Response Mexico Bi-Weekly Consumer Prices (Mar.) The fall in Mexican headline inflation in the first half of March, to 2.7% y/y from 2.9% y/y over February as a whole, confirms that overall price pressures remain in check for now. However, the rise... 22nd March 2016 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Brazil: time to call in the IMF? Given that Brazil’s growing debt burden is denominated overwhelmingly in local currency there is little need for the foreign currency financing that an IMF bailout would provide. Instead, the main... 22nd March 2016 · 1 min read
