Latin America Economics Update Colombia: Tightening cycle close to an end A larger-than-expected hike in interest rates last week, coupled with the fact that inflation should soon peak, means that we suspect that Colombia’s tightening cycle is now nearing an end. We are... 3rd May 2016 · 1 min read
Latin America Data Response Brazil Industrial Production (Mar.) The 1.4% m/m rise in Brazilian industrial production in March was encouraging, but it partly reflects payback for February’s huge 2.7% m/m fall. Moreover, the annual pace of contraction accelerated... 3rd May 2016 · 1 min read
Latin America Data Response Mexico GDP (Q1, Prov.) The acceleration in Mexican GDP growth in the first quarter of this year, to 2.7% y/y, is encouraging but, with a number of headwinds facing the economy, we suspect that growth will slow over the... 29th April 2016 · 1 min read
Latin America Data Response Chile Retail Sales, Ind. Prod. & Copper Prod. (Mar.) March activity data for Chile were a mixed bag, but taken together with last month’s strong figures, they suggest that GDP growth picked up to over 2.0 %y/y in Q1. Nonetheless, we don’t expect the... 29th April 2016 · 1 min read
Latin America Chart Pack Conditions improve, but activity remains depressed The latest activity data from across Latin America have been encouraging, but the bigger picture is that the region’s economy is still struggling. Industrial and retail output in Brazil fell at a... 28th April 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Activity Monitor BRICs drive pick-up in EM growth Our GDP Tracker suggests that EM growth has turned a corner, with the BRIC economies leading the way. Looking ahead, we think that the BRICs will continue to drive a recovery in EM growth. We expect... 28th April 2016 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Brazil’s COPOM to tread carefully Brazil’s COPOM left its benchmark Selic interest rate unchanged at 14.25% yesterday and, while the case for monetary easing is growing, the accompanying statement reinforced our view that interest... 28th April 2016 · 1 min read
Latin America Chart Pack Conditions improve, but activity remains depressed The latest activity data from across Latin America have been encouraging, but the bigger picture is that the region’s economy is still struggling. Industrial and retail output in Brazil fell at a... 28th April 2016 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Peru’s copper boom set to continue Surging copper production will continue to boost GDP growth in Peru over the next couple of years and, while growth is likely to ease in 2018 as mining output stabilises, we expect a recovery in other... 27th April 2016 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Argentina’s bond sale lifts local markets The Argentine government’s return to global capital markets after a 15-year hiatus was met with a surge of investor optimism and coincided with a rally in its financial markets. Meanwhile, the... 26th April 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Currency effects begin to unwind The effects of sharp falls in EM exchange rates since 2014 – which pushed inflation up to multi-year highs in a number of major economies – are now starting to fade. Assuming there isn’t another big... 26th April 2016 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Power rationing another blow to Venezuela’s economy Venezuela’s acute power crisis, which has now forced the government into full-blown rationing, has dealt yet another blow to the beleaguered economy. We reckon that the power crisis could subtract... 25th April 2016 · 1 min read
Frontier Markets Wrap Frontiers ask the IMF to come to their rescue A number of frontier markets have turned to the IMF for financial support over the past few months in order to counter strains in their balance of payments. Angola has formally opened negotiations... 22nd April 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Chart Pack Some respite for commodity producers The worst looks to be over for many EM commodity producers. Their currencies have again been among the best performers this month, helped by a continued recovery in commodity prices. The slump in... 21st April 2016 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Focus Mexico: time to throw in the towel? A combination of tighter monetary and fiscal policy will offset the benefits of a weaker peso and keep the brakes on Mexico’s economy over the coming years. Nonetheless, we don’t think it’s time to... 20th April 2016 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update 5 questions on Argentina’s return to the bond market Argentina’s government will today issue dollar-denominated bonds on the global capital market for the first time in over fifteen years. In this Update , we answer five key questions about the debt... 19th April 2016 · 1 min read
