Latin America Data Response Brazil & Mexico Manufacturing PMIs (May) The drop in Brazil’s manufacturing PMI to a six-year low in May is something of a reality check after better-than-expected first quarter GDP data this morning, but in truth the PMI has been a pretty... 1st June 2016 · 1 min read
Latin America Data Response Brazil GDP (Q1) The drop in Brazil Q1 GDP was much smaller than had been expected but only because of a jump in government spending. With fiscal policy set to tighten over the second half of the year, this prop to... 1st June 2016 · 1 min read
Energy Update What are the prospects for Latin American oil? Declining output of crude in Latin America is one factor supporting our view that the global oil market will return to balance on a more sustainable basis by the end of 2016. That said, we think it is... 27th May 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Activity Monitor EM growth edges up for second consecutive month Our GDP Tracker suggests that EM growth picked up for the second consecutive month in March, suggesting that fears of an imminent collapse continue to be misplaced. The latest rise was broad-based but... 27th May 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Inflation prospects diverge as currency and oil price slumps unwind The unwinding effects of big exchange rate falls on import prices will continue to drive down inflation in a number of major EMs over the coming months. In those EMs that haven’t experienced a great... 26th May 2016 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Lat Am currencies rattled more than most Currencies across Latin America have been caught up in the EM-wide sell-off in recent weeks, triggered by the US Fed signalling that a June interest rate hike is still on the table. But a combination... 26th May 2016 · 1 min read
Latin America Chart Pack Brazil: promising policies, problematic politics Events in Brazil have dominated the past month. The new government under interim president, Michel Temer, has announced a string of market-friendly policies aimed at stabilising the economy, but it... 25th May 2016 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Brazil fiscal package: lofty rhetoric, but implementation a risk Brazil’s Finance Minister, Henrique Meirelles, has unveiled the first part of his planned fiscal adjustment. Our initial take is that the plans are lofty in ambition, but so far lacking in detail... 24th May 2016 · 1 min read
Latin America Data Response Mexico Bi-Weekly Consumer Prices (May) The fact that Mexican inflation in the first half of this month came in at a weaker-than-expected 2.5% y/y eases some of the pressure on the MPC to tighten monetary policy next month. But if the peso... 24th May 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update How and where we differ from the consensus While we have consistently been among the most bearish forecasters of EMs over the past 4-5 years, the consensus has moved a long way in our direction over the past 12 months. Over the next year we... 23rd May 2016 · 1 min read
Latin America Data Response Mexico GDP (Q1) The final estimate of Mexican Q1 GDP growth confirmed that the economy picked up, but by less than previously thought. Looking ahead, we think Q1 may be as good as it gets for Mexico this year, with... 20th May 2016 · 1 min read
Latin America Data Response Brazil IPCA-15 (May) The rise in Brazilian inflation in the first half of this month, to 9.6% y/y, from 9.3% y/y over April as a whole, was disappointing given that it followed declines in the previous three months. Today... 20th May 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Chart Pack EM central banks pause for breath Emerging market policymakers have been in tightening mode over the past year, but this reversed last month. Our EM interest rate diffusion index shows that more EM central banks cut rates than hiked... 20th May 2016 · 1 min read
Frontier Markets Wrap Frontier market governments push for reform Low commodity prices, slower growth and a string of elections have prompted a move towards reform in a handful of frontier market economies in recent months. But while these governments have made... 19th May 2016 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Argentina: policy tightening underway, but work still to do Argentina’s long-overdue policy tightening – needed to address the country’s entrenched inflation problem – is finally underway, but with the fiscal deficit still large and inflation in excess of 40%... 19th May 2016 · 1 min read
Latin America Data Response Chile GDP & Current Account (Q1) The rebound in Chilean GDP growth in Q1 suggests that recent concerns that the economy is heading for a renewed downturn this year were premature. Nonetheless, we doubt growth will accelerate much... 18th May 2016 · 1 min read
