Latin America Economics Update

Five key challenges for Mexico’s next president

The latest polls ahead of Mexico’s election on 2nd June suggest that Claudia Sheinbaum, protégée of incumbent President Andrés Manuel López Obrador (Amlo), is likely to become the country’s next...

17th April 2024 · 6 mins read

Latin America Economics Update

Middle East tensions may support Venezuela’s oil sector

Concerns about escalating tensions in the Middle East and the impact on global oil supplies increase the likelihood that the US will renew its sanctions waiver on Venezuela when the current one...

16th April 2024 · 4 mins read

Capital Daily

Fall in EM yields may be delayed but is still on the cards

Inflationary pressures both domestically and in the US may keep government bond yields in emerging markets high for a while yet. But we think they will eventually fall later in the year.

12th April 2024 · 5 mins read

Latin America Economics Weekly

Services inflation concerns, Peru’s pension withdrawal

The downside headline inflation surprises from some of the region's major economies this week mask the continued strength in underlying core services inflation. Stubborn underlying price pressures...

12th April 2024 · 5 mins read

Emerging Markets Economics Update

Emerging Markets Capital Flows Monitor (Apr. 2024)

Capital flows into EMs have continued to rise in recent weeks, aided by robust global risk appetite. While yesterday’s strong US CPI release has clouded the outlook for Fed interest rate cuts and...

11th April 2024 · 3 mins read

Latin America Rapid Response

Brazil IPCA (March 2024)

The slightly softer-than-expected Brazilian inflation figure for March of 3.9% y/y keeps the door open to 50bp interest rate cuts at the Copom meetings both next month and in June. But with underlying...

10th April 2024 · 2 mins read

Latin America Economics Update

Brazil’s fiscal framework already on the rocks

Media reports that Brazil’s government is already seeking to water down the latest fiscal rule (which has been in place for less than a year) reinforces the point we made when the rule was first...

9th April 2024 · 3 mins read

Latin America Rapid Response

Mexico Consumer Prices (Mar. 2024)

Mexico’s headline inflation rate held steady at 4.4% y/y in March, but the further rise in core services inflation to a 10-month high last month adds weight to our view that Banxico will pause the...

9th April 2024 · 2 mins read

Latin America Rapid Response

Chile Consumer Prices (Mar. 2024)

The larger-than-expected fall in Chile’s inflation to 3.7% y/y in March has increased the chances of the central bank delivering another 75bp cut at its next meeting in May, although we still think...

8th April 2024 · 1 min read

Latin America Economics Weekly

Banxico hawks, Panama downgrade, Peru’s ‘Rolexgate’

The hawkish tone of the Banxico minutes released this week adds weight to our view that the easing cycle in Mexico will be very gradual and we think it's most likely that rates will be kept on hold at...

5th April 2024 · 7 mins read

Latin America Economics Update

Chile: easing cycle entering a slower phase

The more cautious tone of the Monetary Policy Report released by Chile’s central bank today confirms that policymakers have been spooked by the inflation surprises at the start of the year and has...

3rd April 2024 · 3 mins read

Emerging Markets Economics Update

PMIs show that EM industry continues to strengthen

The rise in the aggregate EM manufacturing PMI to a three-year high in March was largely driven by strength in Asian industry, with activity elsewhere weaker. While slower growth in DMs should weigh...

2nd April 2024 · 2 mins read

Latin America Economics Weekly

Copom’s concerns, Maduro tests the US, Chile’s lithium

The minutes to the Brazilian central bank’s meeting last week confirmed our view that Copom will soon start to slow the pace of easing. Meanwhile, developments in Venezuela this week mean that it now...

28th March 2024 · 6 mins read

Global Economic Outlook

On course for a soft landing

In the quarters ahead, economic activity in most of the world will be characterised by soft landings. We expect GDP growth to be below trend, but meaningful recessions should be avoided and the US...

28th March 2024 · 45 mins read

Latin America Economic Outlook

Set for a slow recovery

Activity in the region slowed to a crawl at the end of last year and, while a recovery will take hold in the coming quarters, growth will fall short of consensus expectations. The disinflation process...

26th March 2024 · 22 mins read