Latin America Economics Update Is a debt problem brewing in Mexico? In contrast to the prevailing view that tight credit conditions have been a constraint on Mexican growth, the debt ratio has actually increased at a reasonably sharp pace over the past five years... 25th July 2016 · 1 min read
Latin America Data Response Mexico Bi-Weekly Consumer Prices (July) We expect the rise in Mexican inflation in the first half of this month, to 2.7% y/y from 2.5% y/y over June as a whole, to be the start of an upward trend that will ultimately force the central bank... 22nd July 2016 · 1 min read
Latin America Data Response Brazil IPCA-15 (July) The uptick in Brazilian inflation in the first half of this month was modest but it will reinforce the hawkish tone set by last night’s COPOM statement. Our base case is that interest rate cuts will... 21st July 2016 · 1 min read
Frontier Markets Wrap Low oil prices hitting home Oil prices have been low for some time now, but the past month has brought further evidence that this new reality is starting to hit home in energy-exporting frontier markets. Recently-released data... 21st July 2016 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Rising inflation will push Colombia into further rate hikes Upside risks to Colombian inflation over the next few months mean that we now expect the central bank to raise interest rates by 25bp this month, to 7.75%, with a further hike in August likely... 20th July 2016 · 1 min read
Latin America Data Response Peru Economic Activity (May) The rebound in Peruvian economic activity in May leaves the economy on course to expand by around 4% in Q2. That would be weaker than the Q1 outturn, but it would still mean that Peru remained one of... 15th July 2016 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Chile & Peru hold interest rates, but hikes on the horizon The decisions by the Chilean and Peruvian central banks to leave monetary policy unchanged didn’t come as a surprise as, for now, the inflation picture in both economies is improving. But with... 15th July 2016 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Colombia: Peace deal will improve medium-term outlook The likely signing of a final peace agreement between the Colombian government and the country’s largest insurgent group, the Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia (FARC), will be an historic... 14th July 2016 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Focus Making the most of weaker currencies? The weakening of most Latin American currencies has helped the region’s economies adjust to the terms of trade shock caused by the drop in global commodity prices. But while weaker currencies mean... 13th July 2016 · 1 min read
Latin America Data Response Mexico Industrial Production (May 2016) The weaker-than-expected 0.4% y/y rise in Mexican industrial production growth in May, down sharply from 1.9% y/y in April, confirms that the sector remains the weak spot of the economy. There’s... 12th July 2016 · 1 min read
Latin America Data Response Brazil & Chile Consumer Prices (Jun.) The drop in Brazil inflation, from 9.3% in May to 8.9% in June, should be followed by further falls over the coming months. That said, our view remains that the central bank will resist lowering... 8th July 2016 · 1 min read
Latin America Data Response Mexico Consumer Prices (Jun 2016) The modest fall in Mexico’s headline inflation rate in June, to 2.5% y/y from 2.6% y/y in May, hides the fact that core inflation pressures are creeping up. Coupled with continued pressure on the peso... 7th July 2016 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Brazil inflation set to fall but interest rate cuts to be gradual We expect inflation in Brazil to fall back over the next year but, despite a recent repricing, the centralbank may still not cut interest rates as quickly as the markets expect. 7th July 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economic Outlook EM pick-up to prove short-lived EM growth is likely to accelerate over the second half of this year, but a downward shift in potential growth means the recovery could hit the buffers in 2017-18. 7th July 2016 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update What next for EM equities? British politics remains in turmoil following the vote for “Brexit”, but emerging market (EM) equities do not. There are likely to be more periodic sell-offs in risky assets in the months ahead, but... 4th July 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update EM PMI weakens in June, but some good news The fall in the aggregate EM manufacturing PMI in June suggests that growth probably weakened at the end of Q2. But there was some rare positive news from a handful of EM economies that have been... 1st July 2016 · 1 min read
