Latin America Data Response Mexico Industrial Production (Jun.) Mexico’s manufacturing and construction sectors posted strong m/m gains in June, but a big drag from mining means that overall industrial production only rose by a modest 0.1% m/m. 11th August 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Trade Monitor A pause, not a reversal, in recovery of EM exports The slightly faster decline in EM exports recorded in June compared to May was due to price and currency effects that should prove short-lived. The recovery will continue over the coming months. 11th August 2016 · 1 min read
Latin America Data Response Mexico Consumer Prices (Jul.) The increase in Mexican inflation in July, to 2.7% y/y from 2.5% y/y in June, is unlikely to prompt the central bank to raise interest rates again at Thursday’s MPC meeting. But with inflation likely... 9th August 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Capital Flows Monitor (Jul.) Our Tracker shows that capital outflows from the emerging world eased in July, suggesting that the pick-up in outflows seen in June was just a blip. The big picture is that they have fallen... 8th August 2016 · 1 min read
Latin America Data Response Chile Consumer Prices (Jul.) The fall in Chilean inflation in July, coming on the back of a recent weakening in the economy, means that interest rate hikes this year are now looking unlikely. 8th August 2016 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Few signs of financial stress as credit bubbles deflate Our latest Banking Heat Map shows that Latin America’s credit bubbles are gradually deflating and so far this does not appear to have triggered widespread problems in the region’s banking sectors. Non... 4th August 2016 · 1 min read
Latin America Data Response Brazil Industrial Production (Jun.) The strong increase in Brazilian industrial production in June was encouraging and, coming on the back of rises in output in both April and May, it looks like the sector added to q/q GDP growth for... 2nd August 2016 · 1 min read
Latin America Data Response Brazil & Mexico Manufacturing PMIs (July) The jump in Brazil’s manufacturing PMI in July adds to the evidence that the economy has finally begun to turn the corner. Meanwhile, the fall in Mexico’s PMI suggests that the slowdown in the... 1st August 2016 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Brazil: the economic impact of the 2016 Olympic Games Despite hopes to the contrary, the Rio Games are unlikely to provide much of a boost to Brazil’s economy. We expect the country’s recession to ease further over the coming quarters, but this has... 1st August 2016 · 1 min read
Latin America Data Response Mexico GDP (Q2, Prov.) & Chile Activity (June) The fall in Mexican GDP in Q2 is partly payback for a strong Q1 but it also reflects the continuing drag on Mexican industry from manufacturing weakness in the US. With policy tightening now set to... 29th July 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Activity Monitor Recovery in EM growth pauses Our GDP Tracker suggests that the recent recovery in EM growth paused in May. Nonetheless, preliminary data from June have been more encouraging and we expect EM growth to regain some momentum over... 29th July 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Chart Pack Turkey coup aside, EMs have become more stable The failed military coup in Turkey has sent local financial markets into a tailspin and re-focused investors’ attention on broader EM political risk. However, political stability in emerging markets... 29th July 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Inflation in EM commodity producers remains stubbornly high Inflation in a number of EM commodity producers has remained stubbornly high over the past few months. Accordingly, consensus expectations for monetary policy in these countries have moved towards our... 28th July 2016 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Lat Am equities up despite softer commodities Equities in Latin America have outperformed those in the developed and wider emerging world so far this month, despite another dip in the prices of some global commodities. Meanwhile, Venezuela’s... 28th July 2016 · 1 min read
Latin America Chart Pack Brazil turning the corner The downturn in Latin America appears to have bottomed out in the second quarter of this year. Our GDP Tracker suggests that the region’s economy contracted by 1.2% y/y in Q2, compared to 1.5% y/y in... 27th July 2016 · 1 min read
