Emerging Markets Economics Update Emerging Market Consumer Snapshot (Q3 2016) Emerging market consumer spending growth appears to have bottomed out in recent quarters, but the subsequent recovery will be slow going. While the immediate outlook is brightest in Emerging Asia and... 13th September 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update EM economies now less vulnerable to US rate hikes The sudden sell-off in EMs that started on Friday, triggered by hawkish comments from the head of the Boston Fed Eric Rosengreen, points to a turbulent period ahead for EM financial markets as the... 12th September 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Trade Monitor EM exports stumble, but recovery will continue We think that one-off disruptions explain most of the fall in EM exports in July. More timely data already suggest that EM export growth was stronger in August. 9th September 2016 · 1 min read
Latin America Data Response Mexico Industrial Production (Jul.) The 1.0% y/y drop in Mexican industrial production in July will grab the headlines, but this figure was distorted by working day effects. And the fact that output rose in seasonally-adjusted m/m terms... 9th September 2016 · 1 min read
Latin America Data Response Brazil Consumer Prices (Aug.) August’s inflation data are not going to provide any reassurance to Brazilian policymakers that now is the time to begin lowering interest rates. The headline inflation rate rose to a three-month high... 9th September 2016 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Mexico: big budget cuts to weigh on 2017 growth, mining sector Substantial cuts to government spending announced by Mexico’s new finance minister José Meade in the 2017 budget reinforce our view that GDP growth will be weaker than the consensus expects next year... 9th September 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Emerging Markets Capital Flows Monitor (Aug.) Our Tracker shows that total capital outflows from the emerging world edged up to around $42bn in August from $38bn in July, but they remain well below their peak at the turn of the year. And inflows... 8th September 2016 · 1 min read
Latin America Data Response Mexico Consumer Prices (Aug.) The weaker-than-expected 2.7% y/y increase in Mexican consumer prices in August, coming alongside further government spending cuts expected to be announced in the 2017 budget later today, strengthens... 8th September 2016 · 1 min read
Latin America Data Response Chile Consumer Prices (Aug.) The sharp drop in Chilean inflation in August takes it firmly back within the central bank’s target range and reinforces our view that interest rates are likely to remain on hold for a prolonged... 8th September 2016 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Troubled States only a small part of Brazil’s fiscal problems There is little doubt that the finances of Brazil’s State governments are in dire straits, but there is some confusion as to how this relates to the wider fiscal position. The key point is that the... 6th September 2016 · 1 min read
Latin America Data Response Brazil & Mexico Manufacturing PMIs (Aug.) The fall in Brazil’s manufacturing PMI in August is disappointing, particularly coming on the back of consecutive increases in the previous two months. However, the decline was relatively modest and... 1st September 2016 · 1 min read
Latin America Data Response Brazil GDP (Q2) The bigger-than-expected 0.6% q/q drop in Brazil Q2 GDP was caused by another large fall in consumer spending. An improvement in investment should ensure that the economy returns to growth over the... 31st August 2016 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Rousseff’s removal will shift attention to fiscal reforms The vote by Brazil’s Senate to formally remove President Rousseff from office was a foregone conclusion and is unlikely to have a major impact on markets. Attention will now shift to the passage of... 31st August 2016 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Currencies take Yellen comments in their stride Currencies in Latin America have edged down against the dollar since Fed Chair Janet Yellen left the door open to a hike in US interest rates this year in her Jackson Hole speech, but the moves have... 30th August 2016 · 1 min read
Latin America Data Response Chile Retail Sales, Ind. Prod. & Copper Prod. (Jul.) July’s activity data were slightly better than the dire outturns in May and June, but,on balance, they still suggest the economy remained weak at the start of Q3. 30th August 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Activity Monitor Recovery resumes Our EM GDP Tracker suggests that, after a brief pause in May, the recovery in EM growth resumed in June. The latest improvement has been driven by a pick-up in activity in Emerging Asia and Latin... 30th August 2016 · 1 min read
