Latin America Economics Update An anatomy of Brazil’s recession The depth of Brazil’s recession has been blamed on everything from lower global commodity prices and tightening domestic credit conditions to poor infrastructure and excessive red tape. But this... 29th September 2016 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Mexican peso in the spotlight The sharp drop in the Mexican peso against the dollar this month, driven partly by Donald Trump’s surge in the US election polls, has increased the chances of an interest rate hike at Thursday’s MPC... 28th September 2016 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Trump, the US election and the implications for Latin America Donald Trump’s performance in last night’s first US presidential election debate doesn’t appear to have done himself any favours, but his election in November is still a real possibility. This would... 27th September 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update EM-wide inflation drops to seven-year low EM inflation is now at a seven-year low. Looking ahead, it is set to ease further in most major commodity producing EMs over the coming months, providing central banks with room to cut interest rates. 27th September 2016 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Argentina: Q2 GDP data not as bad as they appear The bigger-than-expected drop in Argentine GDP in Q2 was alarming, but it was due largely to a slump in exports, which should be temporary. The pace of contraction in domestic demand eased and the... 23rd September 2016 · 1 min read
Latin America Data Response Mexico Bi-Weekly Consumer Prices (Sep.) The rise in Mexican inflation in the first half of this month, to 2.9% y/y from 2.7% y/y over August as a whole, alongside the sharp drop in the peso over the past couple of weeks, means that there is... 22nd September 2016 · 1 min read
Latin America Data Response Brazil IPCA-15 (Sep. 16) Data to mid-September provide the first signs that Brazilian food inflation – which has been a source of recent concern for the central bank – is starting to ease. But while that could put an interest... 22nd September 2016 · 1 min read
Latin America Chart Pack Governments tighten the purse strings The past month has seen governments across Latin America announce belt-tightening measures for 2017 as part of their continued efforts to repair balance sheets following the drop in commodity revenues... 21st September 2016 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Food inflation to fall in Brazil and Colombia, but rise in Mexico Food inflation should ease over the coming months in Brazil and Colombia, which will help to bring down the headline inflation rates in both countries. By contrast, in Mexico, we expect the lagged... 21st September 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Chart Pack EM central banks remain in easing mode Emerging market policymakers have been in loosening mode in recent months, with our EM interest rate diffusion index showing that more EM central banks cut rates than hiked again in August. Rate cuts... 21st September 2016 · 1 min read
Frontier Markets Wrap Frontiers turn to international bond markets An increasing number of frontier markets are turning to the international bond markets as they look to paper over the cracks in their finances. Argentina got the ball rolling earlier this year when it... 21st September 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Tight fiscal policy to stifle recoveries in commodity producers The majority of governments in commodity-producing EMs are still in the process of adjusting to the new reality of lower commodity prices and are being forced to cut spending. Accordingly, while... 20th September 2016 · 1 min read
Latin America Data Response Peru Economic Activity (Jul.) The mild pick-up in Peruvian economic activity growth in July was driven by a rebound in the country’s notoriously volatile fishing sector. Nonetheless, we expect growth in the rest of the economy to... 15th September 2016 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Focus What next for Brazil? Brazil’s economy is bottoming out and, while the recovery will be slow going, our 2017 GDP forecast is a bit above consensus. Inflation should ease and, although COPOM will move gradually in the first... 15th September 2016 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Venezuela: dodging near-term default, kicks can down the road An imminent restructuring of the short term dollar debt of Venezuela’s state-owned oil company, PDVSA, means that the severely cash-strapped government should avoid default over the next 12 months... 14th September 2016 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Falling mining output to drag on regional recovery Q2 GDP data released across Latin America over the past month revealed that the mining sector was a key drag on growth in a number of economies. This looks set to continue as the lagged impact of... 13th September 2016 · 1 min read
