Latin America Data Response Peru Economic Activity (Aug.) The pick-up in Peruvian economic activity in August was encouragingly broad-based and suggests that GDP growth rebounded back above 4% in Q3. 14th October 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Emerging Markets Capital Flows Monitor (Sep.) Our Tracker shows that total capital outflows from the emerging world eased a little last month, and they remain well below the levels seen earlier in the year. 14th October 2016 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Peru: Interest rates to rise by more than most expect The Peruvian central bank’s decision to keep interest rates on hold at 4.25% didn’t come as a surprise, but we expect a pick-up in inflation next year to trigger more rate hikes than the consensus... 14th October 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Focus The end of the Golden Age Widespread expectations for a sustained rebound in emerging market growth after the slowdown of recent years will be disappointed. The 2000s were a transient “Golden Age” for the emerging world, with... 13th October 2016 · 20 mins read
Latin America Data Response Mexico Industrial Production (Aug.) The 0.4% m/m drop in Mexican industrial production in August is disappointing coming on the back of three consecutive increases. Nonetheless, it largely reflected another sharp fall in mining output... 12th October 2016 · 1 min read
EM Markets Chart Pack Political risks hit Mexican peso and South African rand The Mexican peso and South African rand have been buffetted by political developments in recent weeks, as Donald Trump continued to take aim at Mexico and South Africa’s Finance Minister was charged... 11th October 2016 · 1 min read
Latin America Data Response Mexico Consumer Prices (Sep.) The increase in Mexican inflation in September, to 3.0% y/y from 2.7% y/y in August, means that headline CPI is now at the central bank’s target and leaves it on track to move above target over the... 7th October 2016 · 1 min read
Latin America Data Response Brazil & Chile Consumer Prices (Sep.) The bigger-than-expected drop in Brazilian inflation in September should be enough to seal the deal on an interest rate cut at this month’s COPOM meeting. 7th October 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economic Outlook Recovery to grind on Economies across the emerging world have strengthened so far this year and we expect further improvements in the months ahead. But growth is likely to peak in 2017 at rates far below the averages of... 6th October 2016 · 1 min read
Latin America Data Response Brazil Industrial Production (Aug.) The 3.8% m/m drop in Brazilian industrial production in August isn’t quite as bad as it seems at first sight. Around two-thirds of the fall was due to a drop in vehicle output, which was affected by a... 4th October 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update EM manufacturing recovery continued in Q3 The EM manufacturing PMIs for September suggest that industry across the emerging world performed better in Q3 than in Q2. That said, the index remains consistent with relatively weak growth in... 3rd October 2016 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Colombians reject peace deal, main risks political Colombian voters’ rejection of the government’s peace deal with the FARC rebel group is unlikely to signal an immediate return to violence. And, while it is a significant blow to the economy’s medium... 3rd October 2016 · 1 min read
Latin America Data Response Chile Retail Sales, Ind. Prod. & Copper Prod. (Aug.) Chilean activity data for August were mixed, but on balance they reinforce our view that a large part of Q2’s weakness was temporary. The early signs are that GDP growth picked up from 1.5% y/y in Q2... 30th September 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Activity Monitor A temporary pause in the EM recovery Our EM GDP Tracker suggests that, after accelerating for most of this year, EM growth was unchanged in July. We think that this pause in the EM recovery should prove to be temporary and we continue to... 30th September 2016 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Mexico raises rates to shore up the peso, further hikes likely The 50bp hike in Mexican interest rates (to 4.75%) at Thursday’s meeting was aimed squarely at supporting the peso. We expect another half-point increase at December’s meeting, taking rates to 5.25%. 29th September 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Financial Risk Monitor China still towards the top of EM worry list Our CERI suggests that financial risks for the average EM are the lowest in over 20 years. Even so, there are pockets of vulnerability. The CERI is flashing warning signs in Egypt, Colombia, Venezuela... 29th September 2016 · 1 min read
