Latin America Economics Update Mexico keeps its powder dry, but rate hikes still likely The rebound in the peso over the last few hours appears to have dissuaded Mexico’s central bank from raising interest rates at a press conference this morning. However, with the situation in markets... 9th November 2016 · 1 min read
Latin America Data Response Brazil Consumer Prices (Oct.) The sharp fall in Brazilian inflation in October is likely to be followed up by further declines over the coming months. Accordingly, barring a sustained drop in the real – the currency is down by 2.5... 9th November 2016 · 1 min read
Latin America Data Response Chile Consumer Prices (Oct.) Chilean inflation surprised on the downside again in October and looks set to fall further over the coming months due to the fading impact of last year’s depreciation of the peso. This is likely to... 8th November 2016 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update How would Mexican policymakers respond to a Trump victory? If Donald Trump prevails in tomorrow’s US presidential election, our sense is that Mexican policymakers’ initial response would be to hike interest rates by 100-200bp at an emergency central bank... 7th November 2016 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Trump & the Mexican peso: how low can you go? The likely market sell-off in response to a victory for Donald Trump next week could push the Mexican peso to as low as 25/$. What happens to the peso beyond the initial sell-off would depend upon... 3rd November 2016 · 1 min read
Precious Metals Update Central banks continue to add gold to their reserves The latest data show that central banks increased their gold reserves in September. However, year-to-date purchases remain substantially lower than in 2015 as temporary factors, like Venezuela selling... 3rd November 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update EM manufacturing makes a strong start to Q4 Manufacturing in the emerging world was at its strongest in more than two years in October, according to the latest PMI surveys, with all the major EM economies seeing a substantial pick-up in the... 1st November 2016 · 1 min read
Latin America Data Response Mexico Manufacturing PMI (Oct.) The small decline in Mexico’s manufacturing PMI in October suggests that the factory sector remains weak. And, with mining output still falling, industry as a whole is unlikely to be a major source of... 1st November 2016 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Will Brazilian equities continue to outperform After seasonal adjustment, house prices on the Core-Logic measure jumped by 1.4% m/m in September. That reading will almost certainly be revised down next month, but even so it is clear that house... 1st November 2016 · 1 min read
Latin America Data Response Brazil Industrial Production (Sep.) & Manuf. PMI (Oct.) The 0.5% m/m increase in Brazilian industrial production in September only partly reversed the steep fall in August and means that the sector still contracted by around 1.0% q/q in Q3 as a whole. The... 1st November 2016 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Latest data deal a blow to Brazil’s recovery A combination of shutdowns at several large auto plants and a drought-related drop in agricultural exports has set back the recovery in Brazil’s economy. Both headwinds should prove temporary, but our... 31st October 2016 · 1 min read
Latin America Data Response Mexico GDP (Q3, Prov.) Mexico’s economy grew by an impressive 1.0% q/q in Q3, the strongest rate since 2014. However, with growth being driven largely by the services sector and monetary policy set to tighten further, such... 31st October 2016 · 1 min read
EM Valuations Monitor How will EM currencies react to Fed tightening? Emerging market (EM) currencies have been stable in recent months, even as the likelihood that the Fed will tighten policy in December has grown. This supports our view that EM currencies will take... 31st October 2016 · 1 min read
Latin America Chart Pack Lat Am central banks turning more dovish Central banks in several countries in Latin America are turning increasingly dovish. Policymakers in Brazil cut interest rates this month on the back of another drop in inflation and further (gradual)... 31st October 2016 · 1 min read
Frontier Markets Wrap Saudi devaluation fears fade, African oil currencies struggle Saudi Arabia’s successful international bond sale earlier this month has eased concerns about the sustainability of its currency peg, but exchange rates in other frontier oil exporters remain in the... 31st October 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Activity Monitor EM growth accelerates on back of China pick-up Our GDP Tracker suggests that, having stalled in July, the EM recovery has since resumed. This is due in large part to a pick-up in growth in China. In contrast, the latest data from Brazil have... 28th October 2016 · 1 min read
