FX Markets Update

Weakness in the Mexican peso may have further to go

We think that the recent weakness in the Mexican peso was partly a symptom of stretched positioning. Given that risk premia still appear unusually low and the outlook for the “carry trade” is...

30th April 2024 · 5 mins read

Emerging Markets Financial Risk Monitor

EM Financial Risk Monitor (Apr. 2024)

Higher US bond yields and a stronger dollar have put some EM currencies under pressure this year, but external vulnerabilities have eased in most EMs which should limit adverse spillovers. Indeed, our...

30th April 2024 · 1 min read

Latin America Rapid Response

Mexico GDP (Q1 Provisional)

The slightly faster-than-expected 0.2% q/q expansion in Mexico’s economy in Q1, alongside strong underlying price pressures and the delay to rate cuts in the US, mean that Banxico is all but certain...

30th April 2024 · 2 mins read

Energy Update

Mexico’s oil export cuts won’t damage global supply

Longstanding turmoil in Mexico’s state-owned oil company, Pemex, alongside newly announced export cuts, raise questions about the outlook for Mexico’s oil output. But it will not be a large enough...

30th April 2024 · 4 mins read

Latin America Economics Update

Panama’s next president to face growing fiscal challenge

José Raúl Mulino, the front-runner in Panama’s presidential election scheduled for Sunday, has pledged to reinvigorate growth. But as we’ve been arguing for some time, the economy’s time as Latin...

29th April 2024 · 3 mins read

Emerging Markets Economics Focus

What Trump’s return would mean for EMs

All the signs suggest that a second Trump administration would take a more protectionist approach to trade. Export demand in Mexico, East Asia and ASEAN would be particularly hard hit by a universal...

29th April 2024 · 13 mins read

Latin America Economics Weekly

Colombia’s drought, Argentina’s anti-austerity protests

Recent rainfall has provided some relief to drought-hit Colombia, but with reservoir levels still perilously low, risks to hydropower generation - and consequently activity and inflation - continue to...

26th April 2024 · 7 mins read

Latin America Rapid Response

Brazil IPCA-15 (April 2024)

The slightly lower-than-expected Brazilian inflation figure for the first half of this month, of 3.8% y/y, and signs of softening underlying core price pressures might just be enough to give Copom...

26th April 2024 · 2 mins read

Emerging Markets Economics Update

“Turnaround EMs”: good start but plenty more to do

The policy shifts underway in Turkey, Nigeria, Argentina and Egypt have ticked a lot of the right boxes so far, but it will take years for the full economic benefits to materialise and require...

24th April 2024 · 5 mins read

Latin America Rapid Response

Mexico Bi-Weekly CPI (Apr. 2024)

The rise in Mexico’s headline inflation rate to 4.6% y/y in the first half of April, coming alongside the delay to rate cuts in the US (and fall in the peso), mean that Banxico is all but certain to...

24th April 2024 · 2 mins read

Latin America Chart Pack

Latin America Chart Pack (Apr. 2024)

Our Latin America Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments. Activity in the region picked up in Q1 and we expect this to continue in the coming quarters...

24th April 2024 · 1 min read

Latin America Economics Update

Argentina: initial fiscal successes but more work to do

The better-than-expected budget figures out of Argentina at the start of the year are undoubtedly good news and show that the fiscal adjustment is happening more quickly than we’d expected. That said...

23rd April 2024 · 5 mins read

Latin America Economics Weekly

Currency worries, Venezuela oil sanctions

The recent falls in many Latin American currencies, alongside stubbornly strong core price pressures, support our relatively hawkish view on the outlook for monetary policy in the region. Elsewhere...

19th April 2024 · 5 mins read

Latin America Economics Update

Will Copom break its forward guidance?

Investors are no longer pricing in a 50bp interest rate cut at the Brazilian central bank meeting next month, despite the forward guidance at the March meeting signalling such a move. While we think...

18th April 2024 · 3 mins read

FX Markets Update

The worst may be over for the Chilean peso

We think the headwinds driving the depreciation of the Chilean peso against the US dollar have largely run their course. We expect the Chilean peso to recover some ground by the end of the year.

18th April 2024 · 4 mins read