Latin America Economics Update What’s behind Brazil’s recent economic resilience? The drivers of Brazil’s recent period of rapid growth seem to be the subject of a heated debate at the central bank – and policymakers’ conclusions will play a big role in determining the pace and... 28th September 2023 · 4 mins read
Latin America Chart Pack Latin America Chart Pack (Sep. 2023) Our Latin America Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments. Brazil and Mexico will outperform others in the region this year, but that’s likely to flip... 28th September 2023 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Financial Risk Monitor Financial vulnerabilities lurking in a handful of EMs Financial risks generally look quite low in most major EMs as current account deficits have narrowed this year and banking sectors remain in strong shape. But there are some areas of weakness... 26th September 2023 · 6 mins read
Latin America Rapid Response Brazil IPCA-15 & Copom Minutes (September 2023) The jump in Brazilian inflation to 5.0% y/y in the first half of September, taken together with the more cautious tone of the minutes to last week’s central bank meeting, supports our view that the... 26th September 2023 · 2 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly Brazil’s services inflation, forecast changes Even though Brazil's central bank gave a clear signal this week that it will cut interest rates in 50bp steps, there are still suggestions that easing core inflation might prompt the central bank to... 22nd September 2023 · 7 mins read
Latin America Rapid Response Mexico Bi-Weekly CPI (Sep.) Mexico’s headline inflation rate came in a little weaker than expected at 4.4% y/y in the first half of September while services inflation remained elevated. Coming alongside strong wage growth and... 22nd September 2023 · 3 mins read
Latin America Economic Outlook Brazil and Mexico’s outperformance to end Brazil and Mexico will outperform others in the region this year, but that’s likely to flip on its head in 2024 as they slow – and by more than most expect – while the Andean economies recover... 21st September 2023 · 21 mins read
Latin America Rapid Response Brazil Interest Rate Announcement (Sep.) The Brazilian central bank’s (BCB’s) 50bp cut in the Selic rate (to 12.75%) and accompanying statement are likely to dash hopes that policymakers will up the pace of the easing cycle, at least in the... 20th September 2023 · 2 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly Mexico’s budget, Argentina heading for hyperinflation? Sergio Massa's pre-election fiscal giveaway will put further upward pressure on inflation in Argentina, which is already running at the highest rate since 1991 when the country was exiting... 15th September 2023 · 7 mins read
Asset Allocation Focus How we think the outlook for EM equities stacks up We think emerging market equities in Asia will outperform those in EMEA and Latin America over the next couple of years, although we doubt they’ll do better than developed market equities. In view of... 15th September 2023 · 12 mins read
Global Markets Update We expect EM local-currency sovereign bonds to rally Given our dovish view of monetary policy in Emerging Markets (EMs) – and our increasingly less bearish view of the US economy – we think that EM local-currency government bond yields will fall across... 14th September 2023 · 5 mins read
Latin America Economics Update Few signs of a “nearshoring boom” in Mexico (yet) There’s little evidence in the investment and trade data so far to back up the commonly-cited narrative that Mexico is experiencing a “nearshoring” boom. The one sector where there are some signs of... 12th September 2023 · 4 mins read
Latin America Rapid Response Brazil IPCA (August 2023) The rise in Brazilian inflation to 4.6% y/y in August won’t prevent the central bank from delivering another 50bp cut, to 12.75% when it meets later this month. But with core services inflation, which... 12th September 2023 · 2 mins read
Latin America Rapid Response Mexico Industrial Production (Jul.) Mexico’s industrial sector posted a slightly larger-than-expected 0.5% m/m increase in output in July and the survey evidence suggests that activity continued to hold up well in August. But we still... 11th September 2023 · 2 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly Mexico’s presidential race begins Former Mexico City mayor Claudia Sheinbaum was unveiled as the ruling Morena party’s presidential candidate this week and with her facing off against the main opposition candidate Xóchitl Gálvez in... 8th September 2023 · 7 mins read
Latin America Rapid Response Mexico Consumer Prices (Aug.) Mexico’s headline inflation rate edged down again in August, to 4.6% y/y, on the back of softer core price pressures but, with services inflation still proving stubborn, Banxico is unlikely to begin... 7th September 2023 · 2 mins read