Latin America Data Response Chile Consumer Prices (Nov.) The small uptick in Chilean inflation in November is likely to prove temporary and we expect the headline rate to fall further below the central bank’s target by early next year. Following more... 7th December 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Focus Ten key calls for EMs in 2017 Far from being the catastrophe that many had expected 2016 was – as we anticipated – a year of stabilisation and recovery for many emerging markets. In this Focus we outline the ten key issues that we... 5th December 2016 · 1 min read
Latin America Data Response Brazil Industrial Production (Oct.) The larger-than-expected 1.1% m/m fall in Brazilian industrial production in October provides an early sign that, following the slump in Q3, a strong rebound in output in Q4 is unlikely. 2nd December 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update EM manufacturing PMI remains near two-year high The EM manufacturing PMI edged down in November, but still suggests that conditions in manufacturing sectors are much healthier than a few months ago. Emerging Europe, in particular, appears to have... 1st December 2016 · 1 min read
Latin America Data Response Brazil & Mexico Manufacturing PMIs (Nov.) Mexico’s manufacturing PMI fell in November following the election of Donald Trump but the decline was very modest and doesn’t point to a renewed downturn in production over the coming months... 1st December 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Inflation in EM commodity producers will continue to ease Inflation in most commodity-producing EMs will continue to edge down over the coming months as the effects of previous currency falls unwind. This will allow policymakers in almost all of these... 30th November 2016 · 1 min read
Latin America Data Response Brazil GDP (Q3) About 0.3%-pts of the 0.8%-pt contraction in Brazil GDP in Q3 can be chalked down to one-off effects stemming from a poor harvest and temporary disruptions to vehicle production. But the big story... 30th November 2016 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Lat Am markets stabilise post Trump Financial markets in Latin America have stabilised following an initial sell-off in the wake of Donald Trump’s election victory. While we expect dollar-denominated bonds to come under further pressure... 29th November 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Activity Monitor EM recovery grinds on Our GDP Tracker suggests that the EM recovery has continued in recent months, driven in large part by a strong rebound in China’s economy. This has a bit further to run but we think the recovery will... 29th November 2016 · 1 min read
Latin America Data Response Chile Retail Sales, Ind. Prod. & Copper Prod. (Oct.) Chilean activity data for October were slightly worse than expected and suggest that the economy got off to a disappointing start in Q4. They’re probably not enough to convince the central bank to... 29th November 2016 · 1 min read
EM Valuations Monitor Valuations still favour EM equities over US$ bonds Yields of emerging market (EM) dollar-denominated bonds have risen since the US elections, but are still generally lower than the forward earnings yields of equities. This is one reason why we believe... 28th November 2016 · 1 min read
Latin America Chart Pack Tide turning against Temer While the eyes of the world have been focused on the fallout from the US election, domestic political risks have resurfaced in Brazil. The latest controversy surrounds allegations that President Temer... 28th November 2016 · 1 min read
Frontier Markets Wrap Frontier financial markets sell off, but losses limited Frontier financial markets came under pressure in the wake of Donald Trump’s US election victory, with currencies weakening against the dollar and bond yields rising. The losses have been relatively... 28th November 2016 · 1 min read
Latin America Data Response Colombia GDP (Q3) The sharp slowdown in Colombian GDP growth, to just 1.2% y/y in Q3 from 2.0% y/y in Q2, was due in part to the effects of a truck drivers’ strike. With the dispute having now ended, Q3 may prove to be... 25th November 2016 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update What next for EM currencies? Emerging market currencies have been one of the major casualties of the global sell-off since the November 8th US elections. Some, including the Turkish lira and South African rand, are likely to... 24th November 2016 · 1 min read
Latin America Data Response Mexico Bi-Weekly Consumer Prices (Nov.) Mexican inflation continued to climb in the first half of November, rising to 3.3% y/y from 3.1% y/y over the whole of October. And, following the sharp depreciation of the peso over recent weeks, we... 24th November 2016 · 1 min read
