EM Valuations Monitor Equities to find some comfort from low valuations Emerging market (EM) equities face a tricky year, as the Fed tightens policy, Donald Trump takes office and geo-political risks blot the outlook. But while these factors probably rule out a repeat of... 5th January 2017 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Fuel inflation spike won’t halt downward trend in headline rates Fuel inflation is set to spike in Latin America over the next few months. In most countries, this will be more than offset by the disinflationary forces caused by the stabilisation of exchange rates... 5th January 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Unpacking “political risk” in EMs The tendency to bracket all EM political risk under the banner of “rising populism” conceals important nuances and prevents a proper understanding of the economic consequences of the risks that are... 5th January 2017 · 1 min read
Latin America Data Response Brazil Industrial Production (Nov.) The 0.2% m/m increase in Brazilian industrial production in November was due in large part to a rebound in vehicle production. This suggests that the lingering effects of a parts dispute with... 5th January 2017 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Mexican inflation set to breach top of target range in 2017 As a result of the recent falls in the peso, Mexico’s headline inflation rate is on course to break through the top end of the central bank’s 2-4% target range next year. While this should prove to be... 20th December 2016 · 1 min read
Latin America Chart Pack A soft end to 2016 Latin America’s economy has ended 2016 on a relatively downbeat note. The news from Brazil has gone from bad to worse, with both industrial production and retail sales falling in the most recent... 19th December 2016 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Peru holds interest rates, but hikes likely to resume in 2017 Peru’s central bank kept interest rates on hold at 4.25% for a tenth consecutive month last night, but with the risks to inflation firmly skewed to the upside, we expect policy tightening to resume... 16th December 2016 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Currencies and equities to weather Fed hikes Latin America’s financial markets have largely shrugged off yesterday’s US interest rate hike, as well as upward revisions to Fed officials’ rate projections – currencies and dollar bonds have made... 15th December 2016 · 1 min read
Latin America Data Response Peru Economic Activity (Oct.) Peru’s economy weakened sharply in October and, while we don’t think that the slowdown will be sustained, it’s an early sign that GDP growth may weaken in Q4. 15th December 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Financial Risk Monitor Fed tightening unlikely to cause major problems for EMs Our proprietary indicator of EM financial risk remains close to a 13-year low, which should help to reassure anyone concerned about a spate of crises across the emerging world in 2017. In particular... 13th December 2016 · 1 min read
Latin America Data Response Mexico Industrial Production (Oct.) The small rise in Mexican industrial production in October doesn’t alter the bigger picture that the sector remains the key weak spot in the economy. We expect industry to do little more than stagnate... 12th December 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Emerging Markets Capital Flows Monitor (Nov.) Our Tracker shows that total capital outflows from the emerging world reached a ten-month high of $75bn last month. This was driven mainly by an acceleration in outflows from China, but it seems that... 9th December 2016 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update From bad to worse and beyond in Brazil Signs that Brazil’s economy was turning a corner around the middle of this year have been extinguished by a recent run of awful data and – more ominously – renewed political strife. There are still... 9th December 2016 · 1 min read
Latin America Data Response Brazil Consumer Prices (Nov.) The larger-than-expected decline in Brazilian inflation in November, coming on the back of less hawkish communications from policymakers in recent weeks, make it more likely that COPOM will step up... 9th December 2016 · 1 min read
Latin America Data Response Mexico Consumer Prices (Nov.) Mexican inflation rose to 3.3% y/y in November, from 3.1% y/y in October, and it’s unlikely to stop there. We expect the headline rate to climb above the top-end of the central bank’s 2-4% target... 8th December 2016 · 1 min read
Latin America Economic Outlook Growth to return in 2017 After two years of falling output, Latin America’s economy finally looks set to return to growth next year. Brazil and Argentina should exit recessions, while the downturns in Colombia and Chile are... 7th December 2016 · 1 min read
