Latin America Data Response Chile Retail Sales, Ind. Prod. & Copper Prod. (Dec.) Chilean activity data for December were relatively encouraging, but it still looks like GDP may have contracted in seasonally-adjusted q/q terms between Q3 and Q4. As such, the central bank is likely... 30th January 2017 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Mexico and the renegotiation of NAFTA: five key points President Trump’s intention to renegotiate NAFTA won’t have any immediate consequences for Mexico’s economy since the current agreement will remain in place until a reformed version is approved by all... 25th January 2017 · 1 min read
Latin America Data Response Mexico Bi-Weekly Consumer Prices (Jan.) The surge in Mexican inflation in the first half of January, to 4.8% y/y from 3.4% y/y in December, was due largely to hikes in regulated fuel prices. But core inflation also rose further as the... 24th January 2017 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Venezuela’s 2016 meltdown among the worst on record Unconfirmed reports suggesting that Venezuelan GDP contracted by a staggering 19% in 2016 would mean that the country experienced the biggest one-year fall in output of any major EM in modern history... 20th January 2017 · 1 min read
Latin America Data Response Brazil IPCA-15 (Jan.) Data to mid-January showed another larger-than-expected drop in Brazilian inflation and, barring a sustained slide in the real, we think COPOM is likely to cut the Selic interest rate by another 75bp... 19th January 2017 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Business investment set to recover Having contracted sharply last year, fixed investment across Latin America looks set to return to growth in 2017. With consumer spending likely to remain under pressure, a pick-up in investment will... 18th January 2017 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update What to expect from Brazil’s economy in 2017 Market expectations have moved steadily towards our more dovish view on the outlook for inflation and interest rates in Brazil this year. But our forecast for growth in 2017 is still above the... 17th January 2017 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Peru holds interest rates, next move still likely to be up Peru’s central bank left its key policy interest rate unchanged at 4.25% for the twelfth consecutive month, but with inflation still above target and the risks skewed to the upside, we expect... 13th January 2017 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Argentina: new economic team, same challenges The motives behind the Argentine government’s decision to oust finance minister Alfonso Prat-Gay in December are unclear, but at this stage two key points are worth emphasising. First, despite... 12th January 2017 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Mexican rates to rise much further than consensus expects Mexico’s central bank has sufficient ammunition to intervene on an intermittent basis in FX markets to counter sharp selloffs in the peso. But the bigger picture is that interest rate hikes will... 11th January 2017 · 1 min read
Latin America Data Response Brazil Consumer Prices (Dec.) The further drop in Brazilian inflation in December seals the deal for a larger cut in the Selic interest rate at today’s COPOM meeting (decision due 18.20 local time). A 75bp cut is possible, but we... 11th January 2017 · 1 min read
EM Markets Chart Pack Bright start to 2017 unlikely to last Financial markets in the emerging world have generally made a bright start to 2017, but we doubt their recent good form will continue given the large amount of uncertainty regarding the global... 10th January 2017 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Whither the real? The key driver of the Brazilian real over the past couple of years has been fluctuations in the price of the country’s commodity exports. Accordingly, our view that the price of Brazil’s main... 9th January 2017 · 1 min read
Latin America Data Response Mexico Consumer Prices (Dec.) Mexican inflation accelerated to 3.4% y/y in December and looks set to breach the upper-bound of the central bank’s 2-4% target range as soon as this month as a result of rising domestic fuel prices... 9th January 2017 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Mexico & US: the ties that bind This note is intended to help clients identify areas where the imposition of protectionist measures by President Trump might hit Mexico hardest. On the trade front, Mexico is especially reliant on... 6th January 2017 · 1 min read
Latin America Data Response Chile Consumer Prices (Dec.) The larger-than-expected drop in Chilean inflation to a three-year low of 2.7% y/y, taking it further below the central bank’s 3% target, probably seals the deal for a 25bp interest rate cut (to 3.25%... 6th January 2017 · 1 min read
