Latin America Economics Update Strike at major copper mine leaves Chile flirting with recession There is a good chance that a strike at Chile’s largest copper mine will tip the economy into a technical recession in Q1. While growth should return in Q2, the weakness of the non-mining sector means... 7th March 2017 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Colombian interest rates to fall by more than most expect The decision by Colombia’s central bank to cut its policy interest rate by 25bp (to 7.25%) caught most off guard but was in line with our expectations. The statement accompanying the decision was... 27th February 2017 · 1 min read
Frontier Markets Wrap Signs of improvement in frontier economies The recent improvement in the global economic backdrop has been mirrored by a pick-up in growth across frontier markets. National accounts data released by early-reporting frontiers over the past... 24th February 2017 · 1 min read
Latin America Data Response Colombia GDP (Q4) The stronger-than-expected expansion in Colombian GDP in Q4 confirms that the worst of the country’s economic downturn has now passed. Higher oil prices should support a further gradual recovery over... 22nd February 2017 · 1 min read
Latin America Chart Pack Weak survey data suggest soft start to 2017 The recent deterioration in survey data across most of Latin America suggests that the region’s economic recovery may have softened at the start of 2017. Following President Trump’s inauguration and a... 21st February 2017 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Peru holds interest rates, but rising inflation set to trigger hikes The Central Reserve Bank of Peru’s decision to leave its policy rate on hold at 4.25% was widely expected and, while the outlook for the economy has deteriorated, we still expect rising inflation to... 10th February 2017 · 1 min read
Latin America Data Response Brazil & Chile Consumer Prices (Jan.) The drop in Brazilian inflation in January, to 5.4% y/y from 6.3% y/y in December, means that another large 75bp cut in the Selic interest rate is on the cards later this month. Elsewhere, inflation... 8th February 2017 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Remittance tax probably not Mexico’s biggest problem The public spat between Donald Trump and President Enrique Peña Nieto over who will pay for the proposed border wall has led to some speculation that the US could impose a tax on remittance flows to... 6th February 2017 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update The real question for Mexico is: why have Nafta gains been so small? According to President Trump, Mexico is “beating the US badly on trade” and a big part of the reason is Nafta. In truth, however, the real question is not why Mexico has benefited so much from Nafta... 2nd February 2017 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Focus How do Lat Am central banks set policy? Our Taylor rules suggest that central banks in Latin America attach most importance to the latest inflation rate and the current output gap when setting policy. Some central banks (notably Mexico)... 2nd February 2017 · 1 min read
Latin America Data Response Brazil & Mexico Manufacturing PMIs (Jan.) The fall in Brazil’s manufacturing PMI to a seven-month low in January is disappointing. But with more reliable surveys, as well as the hard data, showing an improvement, we don’t think it signals a... 1st February 2017 · 1 min read
Latin America Data Response Brazil Industrial Production (Dec.) The larger-than-expected 2.3% m/m surge in Brazilian industrial production in December was due almost entirely to an increase in vehicle production, which is unlikely to be sustained. Nonetheless... 1st February 2017 · 1 min read
Latin America Data Response Mexico GDP (Q4, Prov.) Mexican GDP grew by a respectable 0.6% q/q in Q4, down from +1.0% q/q in Q3, and, while tighter monetary policy and the uncertainty surrounding US trade policy mean growth is set to soften further... 31st January 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Activity Monitor Signs of life in Brazil and Russia Our GDP Tracker suggests that the EM GDP growth has continued to accelerate in recent months and is now running at its fastest pace in two years. While the recovery is still being driven by China... 31st January 2017 · 1 min read
Latin America Chart Pack Trump-Mexico relations off to a rocky start Relations between President Trump and Mexico have got off to an inauspicious start, with spats over the renegotiation of NAFTA, border taxes and, of course, the Wall. From the point of view of Mexico... 31st January 2017 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update No signs yet of major stress in Mexican markets Financial conditions in Mexico have tightened over recent months, partly reflecting the central bank’s aggressive interest rate hikes in response to the falls in the peso. But there are no signs yet... 30th January 2017 · 1 min read
