Latin America Data Response Brazil Consumer Prices (Oct.) The rise in Brazilian inflation from 2.5% y/y in September to 2.7% y/y in October, is likely to be the start of a gradual upwards trend. Nevertheless, we expect inflation to remain below the central... 10th November 2017 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Further interest rate cuts likely in Peru The decision by Peru’s central bank to cut its policy interest rate – by 25bp to 3.25% – caught most by surprise but was in line with our forecast, and we expect further easing over the coming months... 10th November 2017 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Cutting through the latest on PDVSA’s ‘default’ With Venezuela’s state-owned oil company having reportedly failed to make a principal payment on a bond that has now matured, credit default swaps are likely to be triggered on Friday. This is sure to... 9th November 2017 · 1 min read
Latin America Data Response Mexico Consumer Prices (Oct.) The pick-up in Mexican inflation last month appears to be due in large part to temporary factors relating to September’s earthquakes. Nevertheless, the data strengthen the case for delaying interest... 9th November 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Emerging Markets Capital Flows Monitor (Oct.) Our tracker suggests that EM capital outflows picked up to a nine month high in October. Even so, they remained weak by the standard of recent years. 9th November 2017 · 1 min read
Latin America Data Response Chile Consumer Prices (Oct.) The stronger-than-expected pick-up in Chilean inflation in October is likely to ease fears among the central bank’s Board that below-target inflation is becoming entrenched. Even so, with inflation... 8th November 2017 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Venezuela could be in default by end of the week As markets digest conflicting statements by Venezuelan policymakers about their plans for debt servicing, one point to emphasise is that both PDVSA and the government could fall into default by the... 6th November 2017 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Huge challenges to Venezuela’s debt restructuring The announcement by President Maduro that Venezuela’s government plans to restructure its external debt essentially amounts to admitting that it will default in the coming weeks. While the exact... 3rd November 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Powell nomination won't have big impact on EMs The nomination of Jerome Powell to be the next chair of the Fed doesn’t have significant implications for EMs. We think that the economic recovery is close to peaking in several emerging economies and... 2nd November 2017 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Brazil’s BNDES reform slips under the radar The planned changes to the way that Brazil’s state development bank, BNDES, will set interest rates on its loans have passed under the radar but the macroeconomic effects could be significant. We... 2nd November 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update EM manufacturing growth eases in October Our estimate of the aggregate Emerging Market manufacturing PMI suggests that manufacturing activity weakened at the start of the Q4. This slowdown appears to be broad-based across EM regions. 1st November 2017 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Pushing down our BRL forecasts Most currencies in Latin America have weakened against the dollar over the past month, but the Brazilian real and Mexican peso have suffered particularly large falls as the political mood in both... 30th October 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Activity Monitor EM GDP growth at multi-year high in August Our GDP Tracker suggests that aggregate EM growth picked up to its fastest pace in four-and-a-half years in August. However, there are some early signs that EM growth will ease over the coming months. 30th October 2017 · 1 min read
Latin America Chart Pack Fading reform hopes roil Brazilian markets Financial markets in Brazil have come under pressure over the past week as a split in President Temer’s ruling coalition has cast doubt over important parts of his reform agenda. The trigger for the... 27th October 2017 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Argentina raises rates, leaves door open to further hikes The decision by Argentina’s central bank to hike its policy interest rate, when most analysts had been expecting the next move to be a cut, is an encouraging sign that policymakers are serious about... 25th October 2017 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Over to you, President Macri The strong showing by President Macri’s Cambiemos coalition in yesterday’s legislative elections is likely to give a boost to local financial markets when they open later today. However, attention... 23rd October 2017 · 1 min read
