Latin America Data Response Brazil Industrial Production (Oct.) The 0.2% m/m gain in Brazilian industrial production in October suggests that the sector started Q4 on a decent footing, and the latest survey data indicate that conditions in the sector should... 5th December 2017 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update More to Brazil FDI flows than meets the eye The resilience of foreign direct investment (FDI) flows to Brazil has been held up as one of the few good news stories of recent years. The reality, however, is far more complicated. While FDI inflows... 4th December 2017 · 1 min read
Latin America Data Response Brazil GDP (Q3) The meagre 0.1% q/q increase in Brazil GDP in Q3 is not as bad as it looks at first sight. The big hit came from a contraction in agricultural production, which is volatile from quarter to quarter... 1st December 2017 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Chile’s equities collapse, but other assets resilient The collapse in Chile’s equity market following a smaller-than-expected victory for business-friendly candidate Sebastián Piñera in the first round of this month’s presidential election has not been... 29th November 2017 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Elections to shape challenges facing Diaz de León Alejandro Diaz de León, who has been named as the next Governor of the Central Bank of Mexico, is very much a continuity appointment that is unlikely to have a major impact on either financial markets... 29th November 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Activity Monitor EM GDP growth ends Q3 on a high Our GDP Tracker suggests that aggregate EM growth picked up to its fastest pace in just over five years in September. However, more timely data from early reporting countries suggests that growth has... 29th November 2017 · 1 min read
Latin America Chart Pack Easing cycles still have a bit further to run Monetary policy easing cycles across Latin America are getting close to an end, but the evidence of the past month suggests that central banks think they still have a bit more work to do. Policymakers... 29th November 2017 · 1 min read
Latin America Data Response Mexico Bi-Weekly CPI (Nov.) The unexpected rise in Mexican inflation in the first half of November has increased the chances that the central bank will restart its tightening cycle in the next few months. However, we still think... 23rd November 2017 · 1 min read
Latin America Data Response Brazil IPCA-15 (Nov.) The further increase in Brazilian inflation in the first half of November, which was in line with expectations, is unlikely to alter the thinking of COPOM, and we continue to expect a 50bp cut in the... 23rd November 2017 · 1 min read
Latin America Economic Outlook Growth to accelerate further in 2018 We expect economic growth in most countries in Latin America to accelerate further in 2018. Of the region’s major economies, we anticipate a pick-up in growth next year in Brazil, Mexico, Colombia... 22nd November 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Chart Pack More to EM rebound than trade The latest data continue to show a broad acceleration in GDP growth across most of the emerging world. A common thread has been a pick-up in exports, with volumes growth now up on the start of the... 22nd November 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update EM inflation on the turn EM inflation dropped to an eight-year low in the middle of this year, but it has now started to rise. The recent increase in oil prices will have pushed it higher this month. And a combination of... 20th November 2017 · 1 min read
Latin America Data Response Chile GDP & Current Account (Q3) GDP growth in Chile picked up strongly in Q3 and we expect the recovery to continue over the next year or so. The outcome of the elections is unlikely to have a major bearing on the economic outlook. 20th November 2017 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Five key points on Chile’s elections Centre-right ex-president Sebastián Piñera won yesterday’s election in Chile but by a smaller margin than expected and will now face Alejandro Guillier in a second-round run-off on 17th December... 20th November 2017 · 1 min read
Latin America Data Response Colombia GDP (Q3) Colombian GDP growth picked up from 1.2% y/y in Q2 to 2.0% y/y in Q3, and we expect the economy to continue to recover in 2018 as oil output returns to growth and the drag from fiscal austerity eases. 15th November 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Trade Monitor Trump still focusing on bilateral deficits EM exports look to have finished Q3 on a strong note, albeit with help from seasonal effects. Otherwise, a year on from Trump’s election, protectionist rhetoric is yet to result in material changes to... 10th November 2017 · 1 min read
