Latin America Economics Update

Growth in the Andes to disappoint

The latest data suggest that Colombia and Chile underperformed Peru’s economy in Q3. Looking ahead, we think that lower prices for key commodity exports combined with relatively tight fiscal stances...

19th November 2024 · 2 mins read

Emerging Markets Economics Update

What do Trump’s immigration plans mean for EMs?

US President-elect Donald Trump’s plans to curb immigration and undertake a mass deportation of undocumented migrants could boost labour supply in countries that are the source of migrants. But there...

18th November 2024 · 6 mins read

Latin America Economics Weekly

Marco Rubio, Latin America & fracturing

US President-elect Donald Trump’s choice of Mark Rubio as secretary of state suggests that – after years of neglect – Latin America will play a more prominent role in US foreign policy in the next...

15th November 2024 · 6 mins read

Latin America Rapid Response

Mexico Interest Rate Announcement (Nov.)

Mexico’s central bank delivered another 25bp interest rate cut at today’s meeting, to 10.25%, and it left the door open to further easing over the coming months, although a lot will depend on moves in...

14th November 2024 · 2 mins read

Bonds Update

Fiscal risks cloud upbeat outlook for Brazil sovereign bonds

We think investors are now overestimating how tight Brazil’s central bank will keep policy over the coming years, so we expect local-currency bond yields there to fall by end-2025. Still, fiscal...

14th November 2024 · 3 mins read

Latin America Economics Update

Colombia’s public finances: alarm bells ringing

The deterioration in Colombia’s public finances has spooked investors and, with the government showing no clear willingness to rein in spending, Colombian financial assets are likely to remain under...

12th November 2024 · 4 mins read

Emerging Markets Economics Update

The Trump trade and EM crisis risks

The environment of higher US Treasury yields and a stronger dollar that we think will accompany a second Trump administration is one that, historically, has been associated with crises in EMs with...

12th November 2024 · 3 mins read

Latin America Economics Weekly

Mexico’s lessons from Trump 1.0, Argentina’s hopes

One explanation being put forward to explain the relatively modest moves in the Mexican peso since Trump's election victory is that the country may be spared many of Trump’s tariffs threats (as...

8th November 2024 · 7 mins read

Latin America Rapid Response

Brazil IPCA (Oct. 2024)

The further rise in Brazil’s headline inflation rate to 4.8% y/y in October means that the central bank is almost certain to deliver additional interest rate hikes at its upcoming meetings. The risks...

8th November 2024 · 2 mins read

Latin America Economics Update

Mexico’s Trump challenge

Mexico is one of the most vulnerable economies to the policies that US President-elect Trump flagged on the campaign trail. This Update looks at the channels through which it could be affected. One...

7th November 2024 · 3 mins read

Latin America Rapid Response

Mexico Consumer Prices (Oct. 2024)

The larger-than-expected rise in Mexico’s headline inflation rate, to 4.8% y/y in October, was driven entirely by a jump in agricultural price inflation. Core inflation edged down last month which...

7th November 2024 · 2 mins read

Latin America Rapid Response

Brazil Interest Rate Announcement (Nov. 2024)

6th November 2024 · 2 mins read

Latin America Economics Update

Brazil’s bond sell-off: lessons from 2015

The rise in Brazilian local currency government bond yields this year is now on a scale similar to that seen during its fiscal crisis in 2015. Back then, bond yields only started to fall back when...

4th November 2024 · 3 mins read

Latin America Economics Weekly

Argentina’s bond rally, fiscal & rate risks, Mexico outlook

Optimism about Argentina’s policy shift has driven the spreads on sovereign dollar bonds to their narrowest level in over five years, but there’s no sign that policymakers will address the overvalued...

1st November 2024 · 7 mins read

Emerging Markets Financial Risk Monitor

EM Financial Risk Monitor (Oct. 2024)

Financial vulnerabilities have declined further across EMs. Our currency crisis risk indicator was at yet another multi-year low in Q3 and sovereign debt risks have eased across large parts of Africa...

30th October 2024 · 1 min read