Latin America Chart Pack Latin America Chart Pack (Apr. 2024) Our Latin America Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments. Activity in the region picked up in Q1 and we expect this to continue in the coming quarters... 24th April 2024 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Argentina: initial fiscal successes but more work to do The better-than-expected budget figures out of Argentina at the start of the year are undoubtedly good news and show that the fiscal adjustment is happening more quickly than we’d expected. That said... 23rd April 2024 · 5 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly Currency worries, Venezuela oil sanctions The recent falls in many Latin American currencies, alongside stubbornly strong core price pressures, support our relatively hawkish view on the outlook for monetary policy in the region. Elsewhere... 19th April 2024 · 5 mins read
Latin America Economics Update Will Copom break its forward guidance? Investors are no longer pricing in a 50bp interest rate cut at the Brazilian central bank meeting next month, despite the forward guidance at the March meeting signalling such a move. While we think... 18th April 2024 · 3 mins read
FX Markets Update The worst may be over for the Chilean peso We think the headwinds driving the depreciation of the Chilean peso against the US dollar have largely run their course. We expect the Chilean peso to recover some ground by the end of the year. 18th April 2024 · 4 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Chart Pack Emerging Markets Chart Pack (April 2024) Aggregate EM GDP growth will enter a slower phase over the coming quarters. But the headline figure masks large variation in prospects at a country level, with many EMs experiencing a reversal of last... 18th April 2024 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Five key challenges for Mexico’s next president The latest polls ahead of Mexico’s election on 2nd June suggest that Claudia Sheinbaum, protégée of incumbent President Andrés Manuel López Obrador (Amlo), is likely to become the country’s next... 17th April 2024 · 6 mins read
Latin America Economics Update Middle East tensions may support Venezuela’s oil sector Concerns about escalating tensions in the Middle East and the impact on global oil supplies increase the likelihood that the US will renew its sanctions waiver on Venezuela when the current one... 16th April 2024 · 4 mins read
Capital Daily Fall in EM yields may be delayed but is still on the cards Inflationary pressures both domestically and in the US may keep government bond yields in emerging markets high for a while yet. But we think they will eventually fall later in the year. 12th April 2024 · 5 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly Services inflation concerns, Peru’s pension withdrawal The downside headline inflation surprises from some of the region's major economies this week mask the continued strength in underlying core services inflation. Stubborn underlying price pressures... 12th April 2024 · 5 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Emerging Markets Capital Flows Monitor (Apr. 2024) Capital flows into EMs have continued to rise in recent weeks, aided by robust global risk appetite. While yesterday’s strong US CPI release has clouded the outlook for Fed interest rate cuts and... 11th April 2024 · 3 mins read
Latin America Rapid Response Brazil IPCA (March 2024) The slightly softer-than-expected Brazilian inflation figure for March of 3.9% y/y keeps the door open to 50bp interest rate cuts at the Copom meetings both next month and in June. But with underlying... 10th April 2024 · 2 mins read
Latin America Economics Update Brazil’s fiscal framework already on the rocks Media reports that Brazil’s government is already seeking to water down the latest fiscal rule (which has been in place for less than a year) reinforces the point we made when the rule was first... 9th April 2024 · 3 mins read
Latin America Rapid Response Mexico Consumer Prices (Mar. 2024) Mexico’s headline inflation rate held steady at 4.4% y/y in March, but the further rise in core services inflation to a 10-month high last month adds weight to our view that Banxico will pause the... 9th April 2024 · 2 mins read
Latin America Rapid Response Chile Consumer Prices (Mar. 2024) The larger-than-expected fall in Chile’s inflation to 3.7% y/y in March has increased the chances of the central bank delivering another 75bp cut at its next meeting in May, although we still think... 8th April 2024 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Weekly Banxico hawks, Panama downgrade, Peru’s ‘Rolexgate’ The hawkish tone of the Banxico minutes released this week adds weight to our view that the easing cycle in Mexico will be very gradual and we think it's most likely that rates will be kept on hold at... 5th April 2024 · 7 mins read