Latin America Economics Update The floods in southern Brazil: the economic impact The scale of the economic impact of the floods that have affected much of the southern state of Rio Grande do Sul will depend on how long it takes for the waters to recede and for reconstruction... 9th May 2024 · 3 mins read
FX Markets Update Slower easing cycle may not provide relief for the real Although the monetary easing cycle in Brazil is entering a much slower phase, we think the Brazilian real will remain under pressure against the dollar over the coming quarters. In view of wider... 9th May 2024 · 3 mins read
Latin America Economics Update Mexico Consumer Prices (Apr. 2024) The rise in Mexico’s headline inflation rate, to 4.7% y/y in April, was mainly due to a fresh jump in agricultural inflation which masked a fall in core inflation. Still, there’s nothing in the data... 9th May 2024 · 2 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Stubborn services inflation could slow rate cuts further The persistent strength in core services inflation in some EMs outside Asia raises the chances that central banks cut interest rates by less than the consensus expects this year, not least because it... 9th May 2024 · 4 mins read
Latin America Rapid Response Brazil Interest Rate Announcement (May 2024) The Brazilian central bank’s decision to cut the Selic rate by 25bp to 10.50% (rather than opt for another 50bp step) and drop its forward guidance confirm that most of the rate cuts in this easing... 8th May 2024 · 2 mins read
Latin America Economics Update Mexico: fiscal concerns return to the spotlight The Mexican government’s pre-election spending spree means that the next administration will have its work cut out to put the country’s public finances back onto a stable footing. Claudia Sheinbaum... 8th May 2024 · 4 mins read
Latin America Rapid Response Chile Consumer Prices (Apr. 2024) The slightly larger-than-expected rise in Chile’s inflation to 4.0% y/y in April supports our view that the central bank will once again slow the pace of easing with a 50bp cut (to 6.00%) at its... 8th May 2024 · 2 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly Q1 growth rebound, Panama votes, fiscal risks rising The activity data from Latin America released over the past week or so suggest that, having come to a standstill in Q4, there was a strong rebound in growth in Q1 on the back of robust services... 3rd May 2024 · 8 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update EM manufacturing still going strong The EM manufacturing PMI for April showed that industry continued its strong start to the year through to the beginning of Q2. At a regional level, the narrative was largely unchanged: India remains... 2nd May 2024 · 2 mins read
FX Markets Update Weakness in the Mexican peso may have further to go We think that the recent weakness in the Mexican peso was partly a symptom of stretched positioning. Given that risk premia still appear unusually low and the outlook for the “carry trade” is... 30th April 2024 · 5 mins read
Emerging Markets Financial Risk Monitor EM Financial Risk Monitor (Apr. 2024) Higher US bond yields and a stronger dollar have put some EM currencies under pressure this year, but external vulnerabilities have eased in most EMs which should limit adverse spillovers. Indeed, our... 30th April 2024 · 1 min read
Latin America Rapid Response Mexico GDP (Q1 Provisional) The slightly faster-than-expected 0.2% q/q expansion in Mexico’s economy in Q1, alongside strong underlying price pressures and the delay to rate cuts in the US, mean that Banxico is all but certain... 30th April 2024 · 2 mins read
Energy Update Mexico’s oil export cuts won’t damage global supply Longstanding turmoil in Mexico’s state-owned oil company, Pemex, alongside newly announced export cuts, raise questions about the outlook for Mexico’s oil output. But it will not be a large enough... 30th April 2024 · 4 mins read
Latin America Economics Update Panama’s next president to face growing fiscal challenge José Raúl Mulino, the front-runner in Panama’s presidential election scheduled for Sunday, has pledged to reinvigorate growth. But as we’ve been arguing for some time, the economy’s time as Latin... 29th April 2024 · 3 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Focus What Trump’s return would mean for EMs All the signs suggest that a second Trump administration would take a more protectionist approach to trade. Export demand in Mexico, East Asia and ASEAN would be particularly hard hit by a universal... 29th April 2024 · 13 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly Colombia’s drought, Argentina’s anti-austerity protests Recent rainfall has provided some relief to drought-hit Colombia, but with reservoir levels still perilously low, risks to hydropower generation - and consequently activity and inflation - continue to... 26th April 2024 · 7 mins read