Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Tunisian dinar falls on back of IMF deal The Tunisian dinar has been one of the worst performing EM currencies over the past couple of months. Meanwhile, equity markets in the Gulf have continued to rally. 29th May 2013 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Chart Pack Gulf growing at a healthy pace Growth in the Gulf economies has held up well over the first few months of this year. Admittedly, the weakness of the global economy is weighing on demand for the region’s hydrocarbon exports. But... 22nd May 2013 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Weaker oil production to weigh on Gulf growth We expect oil production in the Gulf to remain lower this year than in 2012, which will be a drag on annual GDP growth. But even so, we don’t think it will lead to a collapse in overall economic... 2nd May 2013 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Chart Pack Egypt and the IMF: still no breakthrough Political deadlock in Egypt has placed another obstacle in the way of negotiations with the IMF. A team from the Fund left Cairo earlier this month without an agreement in place, apparently as a... 25th April 2013 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update What does the fall in oil prices mean for the MENA region? The recent fall in oil prices is unlikely to unduly trouble the Gulf States. Prices need to drop much further and stay there before they run fiscal deficits, and even then large savings and low debt... 18th April 2013 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Resilient Gulf unlikely to boost resource-poor economies The Gulf economies are on course to grow at a decent pace this year, but the boost to their resource-poor neighbours is likely to be limited. Trade and investment links are surprisingly small. Instead... 15th April 2013 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economic Outlook A Gulf in growth The Gulf economies are on course to outperform the rest of the region over the next year or so. Admittedly, weak oil production will act as a drag on growth in 2013. But increased government spending... 4th April 2013 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Bond yields spike in Egypt as IMF deal looks further away Yields on Egyptian dollar-denominated bonds have spiked as an IMF deal looks increasingly distant and concerns over the government’s fiscal position mount. 27th March 2013 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Chart Pack Saudi economy not yet overheating A combination of rising government spending, rapid and accelerating credit growth, and a rise in headline inflation has led some commentators to warn that the Saudi economy is overheating. Looking... 14th March 2013 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Chart Pack Gulf countries cutting back oil production The Gulf economies cut back oil production towards the end of last year against the backdrop of the weakening global economy. But while the hydrocarbon sector may be a drag on growth in 2013, it looks... 21st February 2013 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Focus Gulf overheating fears haven't disappeared Recently announced plans in the Gulf countries to ease fiscal policy to counter the global downturn could lead to renewed fears of overheating in the region. Our core inflation measures suggest that... 18th February 2013 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Sluggish Egyptian economy reduces prospect of IMF deal All eyes have focused on the fall of the Egyptian pound since the end of last year. But at the same time, the economy has taken a sharp turn for the worse. This suggests that job creation probably... 13th February 2013 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Middle East Markets Monitor (Jan.) The Egyptian pound has fallen sharply over the past month after the Central Bank of Egypt loosened its grip on the currency. We think the pound could fall by a further 10-15% to around 7.5/US$... 29th January 2013 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Chart Pack All eyes on how far Egyptian pound will fall Although Egypt’s constitutional crisis has eased, the currency is now presenting a fresh cause for concern. Our central view remains that Egypt will secure an IMF deal which, combined with a return of... 24th January 2013 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Chart Pack Constitutional crisis keeps Egypt in the headlines Egypt’s constitutional crisis continues to cast a dark shadow over the economy. Admittedly, the vote on the new draft constitution passed off more smoothly than might have been expected. But the... 19th December 2012 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economic Outlook A region of two halves The Middle East remains a region of two halves. On the one hand, the Gulf economies are in good shape and look well placed to weather what is likely to be a challenging year ahead for the world... 17th December 2012 · 1 min read
