Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Gulf’s non-oil growth fuelled by hydrocarbons Rapid growth in non-oil sectors has raised some hopes that the Gulf countries may finally be diversifying away from a reliance on hydrocarbons. But as we explain in this Watch, the recent expansion of... 8th November 2013 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Bond markets buoyed by delay to Fed “taper” Bond markets across the MENA region have rallied over the past month as it looks increasingly likely that the US Fed will delay tapering its asset purchases under QE3 until early next year. Elsewhere... 29th October 2013 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Inflation set to stay subdued across most of the region Easing food inflation and a modest dip in core price pressures have caused headline inflation to fall across much of the MENA region over the past few months. We expect inflation to remain benign in... 24th October 2013 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economic Outlook Non-oil economies set for recovery The MENA region’s non-oil economies remain fragile, but a recovery of sorts is likely over the next year. In Egypt, growth will be supported by the government’s Gulf-funded stimulus package, while... 17th October 2013 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Egypt’s tourism sector bears the brunt of the unrest Tourist arrivals to Egypt have fallen back following the country’s “second revolution” and we estimate that tourist revenues in July and August were $600mn lower than in the same months of last year... 10th October 2013 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Gulf economies motoring ahead September’s PMI data point to a marked pick-up in activity in the Gulf’s non-oil sectors, supported by an improving external environment. By contrast, the Egyptian economy is showing little sign of... 3rd October 2013 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Should we be concerned about credit growth in the Gulf? Rapid credit growth in the Gulf has fuelled fears that the region is experiencing a credit binge similar to that which culminated in Dubai’s crisis in 2009. But, for now at least, we think that there... 27th September 2013 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Equity markets rebound on back of Syria deal & Fed decision Equity markets have recovered some of their earlier lost ground as concerns overWestern military intervention in Syria, as well as fears of a tapering of QE3 by theUS Federal Reserve, have eased. 25th September 2013 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Chart Pack Gulf economies gathering pace Growth in the Gulf States appears to have accelerated in recent months. Oil production has surged in Saudi Arabia and the UAE, at least in part as a response to supply disruptions in Libya. And in the... 18th September 2013 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Chart Pack Egypt sinks further into crisis, Gulf’s prospects brightening The outbreak of violence between security forces and protestors this month has sent Egypt spiralling deeper into crisis. It’s extremely tricky to predict how eventswill unfold from here on. In the... 20th August 2013 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Chart Pack Egypt in turmoil (again) Egypt’s “second revolution” has made the outlook for the Arab world’s most populous nation highly uncertain. The economy is already extremely fragile – growth is sluggish, unemployment is high and the... 24th July 2013 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update How sustainable is the Gulf’s fiscal splurge? We’ve argued for some time that the Gulf economies should outperform the rest of the MENA region over the next couple of years, in large part thanks to large increases in government spending. But... 11th July 2013 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Chart Pack Egypt back in the spotlight Investors have lost even more confidence in Egypt over the past month. The equity market has tumbled and, while this could in part be related to signals by the US Fed that it will begin to taper QE3... 24th June 2013 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update What would the tapering of QE mean for the MENA region? Fears that the US Fed may begin to taper its third round of quantitative easing (QE) have led to a sell-off in emerging market assets over the past few weeks. The MENA region has escaped relatively... 13th June 2013 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Fears of inflation and unrest to frustrate subsidy reform Subsidies are becoming increasingly unaffordable across the poorer parts of the MENA region. But the threat of higher inflation and social unrest is likely to frustrate efforts at subsidy reform. 11th June 2013 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Youth unemployment likely to have risen further Two and a half years on from the Arab Spring uprisings, youth unemployment in the Middle East, which was a key trigger for the unrest, remains high. In fact, we suspect it may have risen over the past... 6th June 2013 · 1 min read
