Middle East & North Africa Chart Pack Higher oil prices to help narrow twin deficits The price of oil has continued to rise and will help to improve balance sheets in the Gulf. With oil prices at $75pb, all Gulf economies with the exceptions of Bahrain and Oman are likely to be... 24th June 2021 · 15 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update The latest on COVID-19 and vaccines in MENA Virus numbers have fallen in the past few months in the MENA region and a rapid vaccine rollout should allow most of the Gulf economies, as well as Morocco, to lift restrictions further over the... 21st June 2021 · 4 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Chart Pack Gulf tightening the purse strings Fiscal plans announced across the Gulf over the past month suggest that governments will keep policy tight, a key reason why we think that economic growth will disappoint this year. The Saudi 2020... 29th January 2020 · 14 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly Bahrain’s fiscal woes, Tadawul falls, PMIs positive Developments in Bahrain over the past week suggest that the government is backtracking on its commitment to fiscal austerity. We doubt that the other Gulf countries will withdraw their support but, if... 9th May 2019 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Focus Can the Gulf economies weather the slump in oil prices? The latest slump in oil prices is unlikely to lead to major balance sheet strains in the largest Gulf economies and, even if prices fall further to $40-50pb, dollar pegs shouldn’t come under threat... 26th November 2018 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Gulf’s recovery to peak in mid-2019 The Gulf’s economic recovery looks set to gather pace over the coming quarters and growth is likely to be stronger than most expect. But the recovery will probably peak in the middle of next year and... 10th October 2018 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Bahrain: financing from the Gulf to stave off devaluation The $10bn financial support package for Bahrain will help to prevent a currency devaluation but, as we have long expected, financing has come with strings attached. A step up in fiscal consolidation... 5th October 2018 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Focus turns to problems in region’s smaller economies Balance sheets in MENA’s largest economies have improved in recent years, but those in some the smaller economies remain very fragile, something that the markets are now paying attention too. Bahrain... 26th September 2018 · 1 min read
Frontier Markets Wrap Frontier recovery remains on track Frontier financial markets have endured a torrid 2018, but this hasn’t been accompanied by a deterioration in the hard activity data. Admittedly, growth in the largest frontier economy, Nigeria... 29th August 2018 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly Bahrain gets Gulf support, new gas discovery in Egypt? The announcement on Wednesday that Bahrain is in talks with the other Gulf countries over financial support reinforces our view that, despite recent worries in the markets, its dollar peg won’t be... 28th June 2018 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Bahrain comes back under the spotlight The sell-off in Bahrain’s financial markets this week reflects fears that it is struggling to secure external financing to plug its large twin budget and current account deficits. We still think that... 26th June 2018 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economic Outlook A sluggish recovery The recovery in the Middle East and North Africa should continue over the coming months but growth is likely to be weaker than most anticipate. The rebound is being led by the Gulf as the drag from... 19th April 2018 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Bahrain and Oman: austerity to gather pace to cap debt Public debt-to-GDP ratios in Bahrain and Oman are on a worrying path and we expect the pace of austerity to be stepped up over the coming years to slow the rise in debt. However, that will come at the... 8th March 2018 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Chart Pack Market turmoil fails to derail Egypt’s dollar bond sale Egypt defied the recent turmoil in global financial markets and issued $4bn of international bonds earlier this week. The sale was three times oversubscribed and the issuance was split into three... 15th February 2018 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Chart Pack Regional growth slows further The raft of GDP data released over the past month showed that growth across the Middle East & North Africa continued to slow in Q2. Our weighted-average measure of regional GDP expanded by 1.4% y/y in... 20th October 2017 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economic Outlook Turning the corner Growth across the Middle East and North Africa has slowed further this year, but it should recover in 2018 and 2019. In the Gulf, the drag on GDP growth from this year’s oil production cuts will fade... 5th October 2017 · 1 min read
