Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Fears of inflation and unrest to frustrate subsidy reform Subsidies are becoming increasingly unaffordable across the poorer parts of the MENA region. But the threat of higher inflation and social unrest is likely to frustrate efforts at subsidy reform. 11th June 2013 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Youth unemployment likely to have risen further Two and a half years on from the Arab Spring uprisings, youth unemployment in the Middle East, which was a key trigger for the unrest, remains high. In fact, we suspect it may have risen over the past... 6th June 2013 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Bahrain's political upheaval to continue to drag on growth Political unrest, a fragile banking sector and a weak fiscal position are all likely to weigh on Bahrain’s economy over the next few years. As a result, we expect it to be one of the worst performers... 30th May 2013 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Tunisian dinar falls on back of IMF deal The Tunisian dinar has been one of the worst performing EM currencies over the past couple of months. Meanwhile, equity markets in the Gulf have continued to rally. 29th May 2013 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Chart Pack Gulf growing at a healthy pace Growth in the Gulf economies has held up well over the first few months of this year. Admittedly, the weakness of the global economy is weighing on demand for the region’s hydrocarbon exports. But... 22nd May 2013 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Chart Pack Egypt and the IMF: still no breakthrough Political deadlock in Egypt has placed another obstacle in the way of negotiations with the IMF. A team from the Fund left Cairo earlier this month without an agreement in place, apparently as a... 25th April 2013 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update What does the fall in oil prices mean for the MENA region? The recent fall in oil prices is unlikely to unduly trouble the Gulf States. Prices need to drop much further and stay there before they run fiscal deficits, and even then large savings and low debt... 18th April 2013 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Resilient Gulf unlikely to boost resource-poor economies The Gulf economies are on course to grow at a decent pace this year, but the boost to their resource-poor neighbours is likely to be limited. Trade and investment links are surprisingly small. Instead... 15th April 2013 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economic Outlook A Gulf in growth The Gulf economies are on course to outperform the rest of the region over the next year or so. Admittedly, weak oil production will act as a drag on growth in 2013. But increased government spending... 4th April 2013 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Bond yields spike in Egypt as IMF deal looks further away Yields on Egyptian dollar-denominated bonds have spiked as an IMF deal looks increasingly distant and concerns over the government’s fiscal position mount. 27th March 2013 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Chart Pack Saudi economy not yet overheating A combination of rising government spending, rapid and accelerating credit growth, and a rise in headline inflation has led some commentators to warn that the Saudi economy is overheating. Looking... 14th March 2013 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update UAE equities up on recovery hopes Equities in the UAE have rallied over the past few months on hopes that the economic recovery is gathering pace. Elsewhere in the region, the Egyptian pound has stabilised recently following the CBE’s... 26th February 2013 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Chart Pack Gulf countries cutting back oil production The Gulf economies cut back oil production towards the end of last year against the backdrop of the weakening global economy. But while the hydrocarbon sector may be a drag on growth in 2013, it looks... 21st February 2013 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Focus Gulf overheating fears haven't disappeared Recently announced plans in the Gulf countries to ease fiscal policy to counter the global downturn could lead to renewed fears of overheating in the region. Our core inflation measures suggest that... 18th February 2013 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Sluggish Egyptian economy reduces prospect of IMF deal All eyes have focused on the fall of the Egyptian pound since the end of last year. But at the same time, the economy has taken a sharp turn for the worse. This suggests that job creation probably... 13th February 2013 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Middle East Markets Monitor (Jan.) The Egyptian pound has fallen sharply over the past month after the Central Bank of Egypt loosened its grip on the currency. We think the pound could fall by a further 10-15% to around 7.5/US$... 29th January 2013 · 1 min read
