Chief Economist's Note China’s slowdown is a problem for Tesla and Zambia. Less so for global growth. In August 2015, a botched change to the way that Beijing managed the renminbi triggered global panic amid worries that a hard landing in China would take the world economy down with it. Crisis was... 21st August 2023
Africa Economics Weekly Nigerian FX & cabinet, China woes, BRICS summit Continued naira weakness and fuel price concerns have prompted Nigeria’s government to undertake some short-term fixes that threaten renewed vulnerabilities further down the line. Our concerns about... 18th August 2023 · 8 mins read
Africa Economics Update China, Africa and lengthy debt talks China’s prominence as a creditor to African economies goes a long way to explaining the slower speed of debt restructuring negotiations in Zambia, in contrast to Ghana, following their respective... 17th August 2023 · 3 mins read
Africa Chart Pack Africa Chart Pack (Jul. 2023) This new Chart Pack has been designed to replace our Chart Book in response to client feedback to make our insights more accessible, and with more options to incorporate them into your workflow. Use... 26th July 2023 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Weekly Zambia debt deal, austerity in Kenya, SARB to hold? This week saw Zambia edge closer to getting a debt restructuring over the line, but an agreement with official creditors suggested that there remain sticking points when it comes to negotiations with... 23rd June 2023 · 5 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly Debt distress across SSA: more than meets the eye Sovereign dollar bond spreads have widened across Sub-Saharan Africa this week and are signalling further debt distress, particularly in Kenya, Nigeria and Angola. But we think that sovereign debt... 5th May 2023 · 5 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly A breakthrough in the debt restructuring standoff? Glimmers of hope have emerged this week about unlocking the stalemate over the global debt restructuring framework, with encouraging signs for negotiations in Zambia and Ghana. But we fear that the... 14th April 2023 · 6 mins read
Africa Economic Outlook Domestic woes to drag down growth Homegrown problems in Sub-Saharan African economies exacerbated by external headwinds are likely to curtail growth this year. We think that regional GDP will expand by 2.3%, which is well below the... 31st March 2023 · 24 mins read
Africa Chart Pack Growth faltering in region’s biggest economies While the economic outlook in much of the world has turned less downbeat in recent weeks, the prospects for Sub-Saharan Africa’s two biggest economies have, if anything, got gloomier due to homegrown... 31st January 2023 · 12 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly Debt talks in Zambia and Ghana, SA’s energy crisis Delays to Zambia’s debt restructuring threaten to hold up the country’s IMF deal and add to the signs that the Common Framework isn’t fit for purpose. Elsewhere, Ghana’s government appears to be open... 27th January 2023 · 6 mins read
Africa Economic Outlook Storm clouds gathering Sub-Saharan Africa has suffered particularly heavily from the pandemic and then spillovers from the war in Ukraine, and the global recession will only add to the headwinds. Taken together with tight... 25th October 2022 · 24 mins read
Africa Chart Pack African central banks stepping up to the plate Just like their peers in advanced economies, monetary policymakers across Sub-Saharan Africa have turned more hawkish recently. Central banks in South Africa and Nigeria hiked interest rates... 29th September 2022 · 12 mins read
Africa Economics Update Zambia’s return to debt sustainability still elusive One year into Hakainde Hichilema’s presidency, Zambia has taken key steps on the path out of a sovereign default, including securing an IMF deal this month. But with debt restructuring talks yet to... 13th September 2022 · 4 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly Zambia’s IMF deal sealed, reading tea leaves from SA data This week’s rubber-stamping of Zambia’s IMF deal is certainly a welcome step but, with crucial sovereign debt restructuring details unknown, it remains unclear if it will prove to be sufficient to... 2nd September 2022 · 7 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly Zambia’s creditors pledge debt relief, Kenya’s elections News that Zambia’s official creditors agreed to provide debt relief is certainly encouraging and will unlock IMF funding. But the terms of the deal remain unknown, leaving in doubt that the country’s... 5th August 2022 · 5 mins read
Africa Chart Pack Hawkish shift creates difficult environment for Africa The hawkish turn by DM central banks over the past month has further soured investor risk appetite, and capital inflows into African economies are likely to have slowed. Countries with large external... 30th June 2022 · 12 mins read
