CE Spotlight Chapter 4: The policy dilemmas from AI If the AI revolution is unlikely to lead to widespread technological unemployment, then there should be no need for much-vaunted policies such as a Universal Basic Income. Instead policymakers should... 26th September 2023 · 0 mins read
Event Drop-In: Oil prices and the threat to the global inflation outlook 19th September 2023, 2:00PM BST The recent surge in oil prices is fuelling concerns about an inflationary resurgence that could upset central bank monetary policy plans. But how worried should investors be? In this special briefing…
Energy Chart Pack Energy Chart Pack (Aug. 2023) This new Chart Pack has been designed to replace our Chart Book in response to client feedback to make our insights more accessible, and with more options to incorporate them into your workflow. Use... 9th August 2023 · 1 min read
Metals Chart Pack Metals Chart Pack (Aug. 2023) We expect targeted stimulus in China to put a floor under base metals prices in the remainder of 2023. But the slowdown in developed economies (DMs) will prevent significant gains. Prices should start... 8th August 2023 · 1 min read
Event Drop-In: El Niño – Gauging the risks to economies and markets 19th July 2023, 3:00PM BST The World Meteorological Organisation has announced a 90% probability of an El Niño event in the second half of the year, threatening more extreme climate events. How much of a threat does more...
Event Energy Drop-In: Is OPEC+ gearing up for another cut? 1st June 2023, 2:00PM BST Speculation is building that, after its surprise April cut failed to lift oil prices for very long, OPEC+ could use its 3rd-4th June meeting to announce further production cuts. What’s the likelihood…
Commodities Weekly Weak demand will weigh on prices for some time The demand backdrop for commodities appears weak. While oil prices rose this week, they remain low by recent standards at $70-75 per barrel. Industrial metal prices, which rallied late last year and... 12th May 2023 · 6 mins read
Green Transition Chart Pack Renewable costs: what goes up must go down? In this new quarterly publication, the Capital Economics’ Climate and Commodities teams will track and analyse developments in the transition to a greener global economy. The sharp increases in the... 26th April 2023 · 10 mins read
Event Drop-In: OPEC’s surprise cut – Economics, markets, geopolitics 3rd April 2023, 3:00PM BST In the wake of the surprise move by OPEC+ to cut oil production, we held a special online briefing about the decision’s economic and market implications – as well as what this signals about global...
Commodities Outlook The energy crisis is over, but prices to stay elevated We expect most commodity prices to drift lower in the near term as advanced economies enter mild recessions and financial market risk aversion persists. A stronger US dollar will also weigh on prices... 31st March 2023 · 41 mins read
OPEC Watch OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report (Nov.) OPEC’s monthly report for October showed a sharp drop in the group’s production, and further falls are likely if members are to abide by their new quotas from November. 14th November 2022 · 3 mins read
Commodities Outlook Energy prices to remain high Despite the onset of a global recession, we think that energy prices will remain historically high in 2023 owing to severe supply constraints. The next round of EU sanctions on Russia’s oil and... 31st October 2022 · 41 mins read
Energy Update Europe’s natural gas price will be higher next year We expect European natural gas prices to be high in 2023 as the EU will need to replace Russian gas supply for the entire year. This means demand for LNG imports will be strong, even if gas... 25th October 2022 · 3 mins read
Energy Data Response US Weekly Petroleum Status Report US commercial crude stocks fell last week, but distillate stocks rose slightly as high US prices probably took away some of the incentive to export. All eyes will be on today’s announcement by the US... 19th October 2022 · 3 mins read
Energy Update Oil supply to be constrained into next year We have lowered our estimate of global oil supply in 2023 after OPEC+’s announcement that it would cut production quotas from November. As a result, we no longer expect the oil market to be in a... 12th October 2022 · 2 mins read
Commodities Weekly Geopolitics back with a bang in the oil market Crude oil prices rose by around 10% this week as OPEC+ announced a 2m bpd cut to its production quota, which all but guarantees that the market will be in a deficit in Q4. Accordingly, we are sticking... 7th October 2022 · 6 mins read
