US Economics Update Stimulus is big, but we won’t be revising our forecasts Although Democrats are close to securing passage of nearly all the $1.9trn originally requested by President Joe Biden in his American Rescue Plan, which is significantly more than the $1trn in... 6th March 2021 · 4 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Data Response Egypt Consumer Prices (Jun.) Egypt’s headline inflation rate picked up to 5.6% y/y in June and will probably rise a bit further over the coming months. Crucially, though, we expect inflation to remain below the mid-point of the... 9th July 2020 · 2 mins read
Japan Chart Pack New cases not exploding but economic hit still huge A second wave of virus cases driven by rising infections in Tokyo and Osaka has triggered a major shift in economic behaviour. And while new cases in the two lynchpins of the Japanese economy have... 17th April 2020 · 11 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Three key questions on IMF support for EMs Many EMs are now turning to the IMF for help in dealing with the fallout from coronavirus, raising questions about whether the Fund will be able to cope with the increased in demands on its purse... 2nd April 2020 · 6 mins read
China Data Response Official PMIs (Mar.) The latest survey data add to broader evidence that activity has started to rebound but suggest that weak foreign demand and labour market strains remain headwinds. 31st March 2020 · 3 mins read
Asset Allocation Update Will the fire selling of haven assets last? The surprising weakness of Treasuries alongside the collapse in US equity prices recently seems to have been driven by fire selling, not worries about inflation or debt. However, even if further falls... 20th March 2020 · 3 mins read
Bank of Japan Watch Bank to extend forward guidance We expect the Bank of Japan to extend its forward guidance from spring 2020 to summer 2020 or later at next week’s meeting. However, we think that the financial markets are misguided in anticipating... 23rd July 2019 · 7 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economic Outlook Policymakers to push the boundaries of policy easing We think that a combination of policy loosening by major central banks, an increase in investor risk aversion, and mounting trade tensions will lead to bond yields in Switzerland and the Nordics... 9th September 2018 · 21 mins read
