Africa Economics Update Next SARB Governor faces an uphill task Speculation is mounting that one of the current Deputy Governors will take over from Gill Marcus as Governor of the South African Reserve Bank. But the bigger picture is that, whoever is appointed... 23rd September 2014 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update South African rates left unchanged as Marcus steps down The decision by the South African Reserve Bank to leave interest rates unchanged at 5.75% today was overshadowed by the announcement that Governor Marcus will step down in November. Whoever assumes... 18th September 2014 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update South African banking sector under scrutiny The Reserve Bank’s (SARB’s) recent bailout of African Bank has raised concerns over the state of South Africa’s wider financial sector. But as we explain in this Watch, although other smaller banks... 10th September 2014 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update South Africa’s current account woes return in Q2 South Africa’s balance of payments data for Q2 make for grim reading. The current account deficit widened to its largest as a share of GDP since Q3 2013 and, while exports are likely to pick up later... 9th September 2014 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update South African PMI picks up but manufacturing still weak The rise in South Africa’s manufacturing PMI in August suggests that the recent downturn in the sector is beginning to ease as wide-scale strike action earlier this year has wound down. But while this... 1st September 2014 · 1 min read
Africa Chart Pack Weaker growth looms for twin deficit countries Ghana’s authorities bowed to the inevitable earlier this month by formally requesting assistance from the IMF in dealing with the country’s enormous twin budget and current account deficits. This... 29th August 2014 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update South African economy stagnates in first half of 2014 Today’s GDP data show that, following the contraction in Q1, the South African economy narrowly avoided entering recession in Q2. But the bigger picture is that the economy remains very weak. Output... 26th August 2014 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update South African markets shrug off bank downgrades South African markets appear to have taken the collapse of African Bank and the subsequent decision by Moody’s to downgrade the ratings of the country’s four largest banks in their stride. Local... 21st August 2014 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Glimmers of hope for reform of South Africa’s labour market South Africa’s labour market rigidities have been a key constraint on economic growth over the past few years, but some recent developments have given glimmers of hope that much-needed reform can be... 20th August 2014 · 1 min read
Africa Economic Outlook Cracks emerge in the “Africa Rising” story The long-run growth outlook for sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) remains good, but recent developments have caused cracks to emerge in the “Africa Rising” story. Budget and current account positions have... 15th August 2014 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update South Africa GDP Tracker suggests continued weakness in Q2 Our GDP Tracker suggests that, following the contraction in Q1, the South African economy avoided entering recession in Q2, but only by the skin of its teeth. The bigger picture is that growth remains... 14th August 2014 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update South African manufacturing in dire straits South Africa’s manufacturing PMI for July makes for grim reading. The index is now consistent with an outright contraction in the sector of around 5-6% y/y, and suggests that even our below-consensus... 1st August 2014 · 1 min read
Africa Chart Pack Tightening cycles have further to run The tightening cycles that began in Ghana and South Africa earlier this year continued in July and, in both cases, we think that further interest rate hikes are likely before the end of 2014. Ghana’s... 31st July 2014 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update South African inflation to remain above target until 2015 South African inflation remained stable in June, but is probably set to rise in the near term, and is unlikely to fall back within the SARB’s target range until early 2015. This should be enough to... 23rd July 2014 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update South African tightening cycle to remain gradual Having raised interest rates by 25bp today on account of rising inflation, it is clear that the South African Reserve Bank (SARB) is in the midst of a gradual tightening cycle. Further rate hikes are... 17th July 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Four questions about the BRICS Bank and swap deal After years of discussion, the five BRICS nations yesterday agreed to establish a development bank and a framework of currency swaps, dubbed the “Contingency Reserve Arrangement” (CRA). In this Update... 16th July 2014 · 1 min read
