Africa Economics Update Kganyago lengthens ‘pause’, no rate hikes until 2016 Policymakers in South Africa kept interest rates on hold today, but struck a significantly less hawkish tone in the accompanying statement. Accordingly, we no longer expect rates to be raised this... 29th January 2015 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Electricity shortages to stymie South Africa’s recovery There are encouraging signs that South Africa’s power shortages will ease in the medium term. But this year, they are likely to continue to drag on economic growth. 26th January 2015 · 1 min read
Africa Data Response South Africa Consumer Prices (Dec.) The sharp slowdown in South African inflation, to 5.3% y/y, in December was driven almost entirely by the impact of lower oil prices on petrol inflation. Core price pressures remain strong. But with... 21st January 2015 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update South Africa GDP Tracker points to acceleration in Q4 GDP growth in South Africa seems to have picked up in Q4 2014, but this acceleration is unlikely to last into 2015. Growth was flattered by base effects and we expect that lasting structural... 20th January 2015 · 1 min read
Africa Data Response South Africa Manufacturing PMI (Dec.) The decline in December’s manufacturing PMI suggests that the sector ended 2014 on a low point. Although it probably contributed strongly to GDP growth over Q4 as a whole, that looks unlikely to be... 14th January 2015 · 1 min read
Africa Data Response South Africa Manufacturing Production (Nov.) November’s fall in South African manufacturing production was perhaps overdue given the strength of output in previous months. The sector is still likely to have contributed positively to GDP growth... 12th January 2015 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update How damaging have strikes been to South Africa? Strike action in South Africa may have knocked as much as half a percentage point off GDP growth over 2014 as a whole. As long as industrial action does not reach a similar scale this year, growth... 9th January 2015 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update How damaging have strikes been to South Africa? Strike action in South Africa may have knocked as much as half a percentage point off GDP growth over 2014 as a whole. As long as industrial action does not reach a similar scale this year, growth... 9th January 2015 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Focus A bleak future for South Africa’s metals mining sector Precious metals mining in South Africa is in long-term decline and lower prices are undermining profitability. Although the country’s near-monopoly on global platinum and palladium reserves suggests... 8th January 2015 · 1 min read
Africa Chart Pack Naira and rand in the firing line Currencies in sub-Saharan Africa have continued to come under pressure this month, with both the South African rand and Nigerian naira falling to record lows. The naira has suffered from the further... 17th December 2014 · 1 min read
Africa Data Response South Africa Consumer Prices (Nov.) South Africa’s headline rate of inflation slowed slightly in November. We think that it will fall further in the coming months, but core price pressures are likely to remain strong. As a result, we... 10th December 2014 · 1 min read
Africa Data Response South Africa Manufacturing Production (Oct.) Manufacturing output in South Africa continued its steady recovery in October. Lower oil prices and a weaker rand will provide a boost to the sector over the coming months, but underlying growth is... 9th December 2014 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update How South Africa stands to gain from the slump in oil prices The sharp slide in oil prices will help to lower inflation in South Africa and is likely to make a significant dent in the country’s current account deficit. But while this may ease concerns about the... 9th December 2014 · 1 min read
Africa Data Response South Africa Current Account (Q3) Despite the fall in oil prices and the weakness of the economy, South Africa’s current account deficit remained large in Q3. If lower oil prices are maintained, as we expect, then the deficit should... 8th December 2014 · 1 min read
Africa Data Response South Africa Manufacturing PMI (Nov.) The latest manufacturing PMI for South Africa suggests that growth in the sector continued to pick up at the beginning of Q4. But strong growth is unlikely to last. 1st December 2014 · 1 min read
Africa Data Response South Africa Trade (Oct.) The large rise in South Africa’s trade deficit in October was largely down to an unusually large increase in oil imports, which is unlikely to be sustained. Nevertheless, the external shortfall will... 28th November 2014 · 1 min read
