Africa Data Response South Africa Retail Sales (Sep.) September’s retail sales figures were weaker than expected, supporting our belief that recent strong growth in the consumer sector is unsustainable. But today’s figures do at least suggest that the... 18th November 2015 · 1 min read
Africa Data Response South Africa Consumer Prices (Oct.) South African inflation accelerated to 4.7% y/y in October in what we believe is the beginning of a sharp inflationary spike. While tomorrow’s rate decision will be close, we expect that the SARB will... 18th November 2015 · 1 min read
Metals Data Response South Africa’s Mine Production (Sep.) South Africa’s PGM production continued to fall in September as low prices are threatening miners’ profitability. Lonmin is just the latest example of an industry struggling to keep up with labour... 12th November 2015 · 1 min read
Africa Data Response South Africa Manufacturing Output (Sep.) Today’s manufacturing output figures were sharply above consensus, and show that the economically crucial sector returned to growth in September. This is a welcome sign, and supports our view that the... 10th November 2015 · 1 min read
Precious Metals Update Will Lonmin’s call for cash impact PGM prices? Under pressure from labour unrest, rising costs and weak platinum prices, Lonmin said this week that it will cease trading if its plan to raise capital in a rights issue of new shares is unsuccessful... 5th November 2015 · 1 min read
Africa Data Response South Africa Manufacturing PMI (Oct.) The sharp fall in South Africa’s October manufacturing PMI supports our view that the country’s manufacturing sector will struggle over the coming months. 2nd November 2015 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update South Africa’s medium-term budget still looks too hopeful The South African government’s newly-revised macroeconomic forecasts announced in today’s medium-term budget policy statement seem more plausible than those in February’s budget. Even so, the... 21st October 2015 · 1 min read
Africa Data Response South Africa Consumer Prices (Sep.) Last month’s weaker-than-expected South African inflation reading, of 4.6% y/y, coming alongside the recent rally in the rand, makes next month’s Reserve Bank rate decision a close call. But with... 21st October 2015 · 1 min read
Precious Metals Update South Africa’s strikes to provide further boost to gold price While the Fed has been the biggest driver of gold prices recently, labour tensions in South Africa could provide a further boost. We believe that the gold market is already quite tight after prolonged... 12th October 2015 · 1 min read
Africa Data Response South Africa Mining & Manufacturing Output (Aug.) Manufacturing and mining output figures for South Africa released today were both weaker than the figures reported last month. The downbeat data support our view that growth will remain weak over the... 8th October 2015 · 1 min read
Africa Data Response South Africa Manufacturing PMI (Sep.) The second consecutive below-50 PMI reading provides more evidence that the strong manufacturing output figures reported for July were a blip and that the sector remains mired in slow growth. 1st October 2015 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update South Africa: SARB holds rates, slashes growth forecasts A string of grim growth figures led South Africa’s MPC to pause its gradual tightening cycle today. We had expected a hike at this meeting, and still think that accelerating inflation and a... 23rd September 2015 · 1 min read
Africa Data Response South Africa Consumer Prices (Aug.) Inflation in South Africa fell to 4.6% y/y in August, below our expectations and those of other analysts. We still expect the SARB to hike interest rates later today, but today’s CPI figure means that... 23rd September 2015 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update South Africa: New sales figures, same grim story Statistics South Africa has updated its calculations of retail sales figures, but the new data still paint a pretty miserable picture. Our GDP tracker suggests that the South African economy stagnated... 16th September 2015 · 1 min read
Africa Data Response South Africa Mining & Manufacturing Output (Jul.) Manufacturing and mining output figures for South Africa released today were both above consensus, but both figures were distorted by the comparison with last year’s disruptions. Underlying growth in... 10th September 2015 · 1 min read
Africa Data Response South Africa Manufacturing PMI (Aug.) The fall in South Africa’s manufacturing PMI last month provides yet further evidence of economic weakness. Perhaps the best that can be said is that the manufacturing sector’s performance so far in... 1st September 2015 · 1 min read
