Africa Economics Update South Africa’s fragmenting parliament a fiscal headache South Africa’s upcoming general election looks likely to result in a much more fragmented parliament and mark a shift to coalition government. The lesson from elsewhere in the emerging world is that... 23rd April 2024 · 3 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly Nigeria naira rebound, SA election and late rate cuts The naira’s surprising recent recovery appears to have been driven by FX reserve sales and the currency risks becoming overvalued again. We think renewed naira weakness is on the cards over the rest... 19th April 2024 · 6 mins read
Africa Economics Update South Africa’s economy may be turning a corner South Africa’s latest hard activity data provided some encouraging signs that the economy may be turning the corner even if it comes too late to help the ANC’s hopes of keeping its majority in... 17th April 2024 · 3 mins read
Africa Data Response South Africa Consumer Prices (Mar.) The larger-than-expected fall in South Africa’s headline inflation rate, to 5.3% y/y, in March will not be enough to sway the SARB from starting its easing cycle. 17th April 2024 · 2 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly Zuma to stand, SA activity, Nigeria fuel prices A court decision this week in South Africa has laid the ground for former president Zuma to stand in next month’s elections and opinion polls suggest that his MK Party will become the third largest in... 12th April 2024 · 7 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly SA weak demand, Nigeria electricity, Kenya rates South Africa’s disappointing PMI for March supports our view that the economic recovery this year will be subdued. Elsewhere, Nigeria’s reduction in household electricity subsidies will help its... 5th April 2024 · 5 mins read
Africa Economics Update The economic effects of the drought in southern Africa El Niño is causing severe drought across much of southern Africa, which is likely to weigh on GDP, push up inflation and strain balance sheets. South Africa has also suffered water shortages, albeit... 4th April 2024 · 4 mins read
Africa Chart Pack Africa Chart Pack (Mar. 2024) Sub-Saharan Africa will record a pick-up in growth over the coming years, helped by an improving external environment. But tight fiscal and monetary policy will constrain the recovery and our GDP... 28th March 2024 · 0 mins read
Africa Economic Outlook Recovery stuck in low gear Sub-Saharan Africa will record a pick-up in growth over the coming years, helped by an improving external environment reducing the threat of further large currency falls as well as sovereign defaults... 27th March 2024 · 20 mins read
Africa Economics Update SARB keeping up the inflation fight The South African Reserve Bank left its repo rate unchanged at 8.25% for a fifth consecutive meeting today and the continued hawkish rhetoric from Governor Kganyago supports our view that rate cuts... 27th March 2024 · 2 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly Rates preview: Nigeria to hike, South Africa to hold The South African Reserve Bank looks set to leave interest rates on hold at 8.25% next week and it now seems an easing cycle won’t begin until after May’s election, the outcome of which could even... 22nd March 2024 · 6 mins read
Africa Economics Focus Will Africa unlock its potential? Sub-Saharan Africa’s enormous demographic tailwind means the region will see the fastest GDP growth rates (4-5%) of any region between now and 2050. By the middle of the century, the region’s overall... 21st March 2024 · 22 mins read
Africa Economics Update South Africa’s economy adding to the ANC’s struggles South Africa’s latest hard activity data show that the economy continued to struggle at the start of 2024, which will hardly help the ANC’s hopes of keeping its majority in parliament after May’s... 20th March 2024 · 4 mins read
Africa Data Response South Africa Consumer Prices (Feb.) The larger-than-expected rise in South Africa’s headline inflation rate, to 5.6% y/y, in February means that the SARB is likely to delay the start of its easing cycle until after May’s election. 20th March 2024 · 2 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly Nigeria Eurobond, SA banks and SDR increase The Nigerian naira’s latest devaluation has taken it closer to fair value and, with investor sentiment towards Nigeria improving, the government is lining up a fresh Eurobond sale. That may help to... 15th March 2024 · 7 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly South Africa metals and current account, Ghana debt Reports suggest that metal producers in South Africa are contemplating cost-cutting measures on the back of the slump in global metals prices, presenting another headwind to the modest pick-up in... 8th March 2024 · 6 mins read
