Africa Economics Update South Africa suffers as SSA closes very weak year The South African currency and local equities plunged in December when a botched cabinet reshuffle by President Jacob Zuma caused investors to question the country’s governance. The self-induced... 22nd December 2015 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Rand crisis brings prospect of higher inflation and rate hikes The surprise removal of South Africa’s respected finance minister has caused investors to reassess their views of South Africa’s struggling economy. Talk of an emergency rate hike is probably overdone... 11th December 2015 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update South Africa: Finance minister’s sacking will spook investors The surprise removal of Finance Minister Nhlanhla Nene is a very worrying development. Mr. Nene was a rare advocate of fiscal discipline, and his sacking adds to a string of increasingly autocratic... 10th December 2015 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update South Africa: Retail sales cannot support growth indefinitely Retail sales were surprisingly buoyant in October, but we do not believe that this is sustainable. We expect that South Africa’s economy will continue to perform poorly in 2016. 9th December 2015 · 1 min read
Metals Data Response South Africa’s Mine Production (Oct.) South Africa’s PGM production rose in October after three months of declines. However, labour disruptions and weak prices have forced the largest miners to restructure and cut their capital... 8th December 2015 · 1 min read
Africa Data Response South Africa Current Account (Q3) Data released this morning showed that South Africa’s current account deficit widened in Q3 as a result of higher domestic spending. 8th December 2015 · 1 min read
Africa Data Response South Africa Business Confidence (Nov.) The South African Chamber of Commerce and Industry (SACCI) business confidence index retreated to near its historic low in November, providing yet another sign that expectations of an improvement in... 3rd December 2015 · 1 min read
Africa Data Response South Africa Manufacturing PMI (Nov.) South Africa’s November Manufacturing PMI fell to a six year low, and - while there is a possibility that the figure could be revised - we believe that monetary tightening and slow growth have... 1st December 2015 · 1 min read
Metals Watch Are capex cuts enough to lift PGM prices? Persistently weak prices of platinum group metal (PGMs) have forced the three largest PGM miners in South Africa to undertake deep cuts to their capital expenditure, workforce and cost structure. At... 27th November 2015 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update South Africa: Slow, painful tightening cycle to continue The SARB’s decision to hike its key interest rate from 6.00% to 6.25% showed that the Bank is alarmed at the prospect of persistently high inflation in the context of disappointing growth. The... 19th November 2015 · 1 min read
Africa Data Response South Africa Retail Sales (Sep.) September’s retail sales figures were weaker than expected, supporting our belief that recent strong growth in the consumer sector is unsustainable. But today’s figures do at least suggest that the... 18th November 2015 · 1 min read
Africa Data Response South Africa Consumer Prices (Oct.) South African inflation accelerated to 4.7% y/y in October in what we believe is the beginning of a sharp inflationary spike. While tomorrow’s rate decision will be close, we expect that the SARB will... 18th November 2015 · 1 min read
Metals Data Response South Africa’s Mine Production (Sep.) South Africa’s PGM production continued to fall in September as low prices are threatening miners’ profitability. Lonmin is just the latest example of an industry struggling to keep up with labour... 12th November 2015 · 1 min read
Africa Data Response South Africa Manufacturing Output (Sep.) Today’s manufacturing output figures were sharply above consensus, and show that the economically crucial sector returned to growth in September. This is a welcome sign, and supports our view that the... 10th November 2015 · 1 min read
Precious Metals Update Will Lonmin’s call for cash impact PGM prices? Under pressure from labour unrest, rising costs and weak platinum prices, Lonmin said this week that it will cease trading if its plan to raise capital in a rights issue of new shares is unsuccessful... 5th November 2015 · 1 min read
Africa Data Response South Africa Manufacturing PMI (Oct.) The sharp fall in South Africa’s October manufacturing PMI supports our view that the country’s manufacturing sector will struggle over the coming months. 2nd November 2015 · 1 min read
