Africa Economics Update South Africa: Economy probably dodged recession in Q2 Activity data for May suggest that South Africa’s economy has improved after contracting in Q1. We expect that the economy returned to growth in Q2, narrowly missing a technical recession. 14th July 2016 · 1 min read
Africa Data Response South Africa Manufacturing Output (May) Strong May manufacturing figures add to the evidence that South Africa’s economy avoided a recession in Q2. The sector seems to be benefiting from the weak rand. 12th July 2016 · 1 min read
Africa Data Response South Africa Business Confidence (June) South Africa’s business confidence index remained weak in June, though it rose from the all-time low in May. Other surveys – and timely activity data – suggest that the economy probably avoided a... 6th July 2016 · 1 min read
Africa Data Response South Africa Manufacturing PMI (Jun.) June’s surprisingly positive PMI reading provides another sign that South Africa’s economy narrowly avoided a recession in Q2. 1st July 2016 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update South Africa: recession avoidable, stagnation may not be The surprisingly bad fall in South African GDP in Q1 has raised fears that the economy could enter recession in Q2. We’ll know more in the next few weeks as May’s activity figures are published, but... 28th June 2016 · 1 min read
Africa Data Response S. Africa Current Account (Q1) & Nigeria Inflation (May) The widening of South Africa’s current account deficit in Q1 will keep pressure on the country’s currency, supporting our view that monetary policy will be tightened. Similarly, higher inflation in... 14th June 2016 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update South Africa: Key sectors improve at start of Q2 South Africa’s April output figures suggest that, after a disastrous Q1, the economy improved a touch going into Q2. But the country will still struggle to avoid a technical recession. 9th June 2016 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update South Africa: Sharp contraction very worrying sign South Africa’s ailing economy is clearly heading in the wrong direction. Today’s very disappointing Q1 GDP figure will add to pressure on the country’s credit rating. 8th June 2016 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update South Africa: Trade surplus positive news ahead of ratings review Today’s trade figures will provide some support for the South African rand. But the currency still faces significant headwinds given political uncertainty and the looming risk of a government credit... 31st May 2016 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update South Africa: A pause in the tightening cycle Today’s decision to hold rates at 7.00% is only a pause in the SARB’s tightening cycle; we still expect at least two rate hikes later this year. The MPC statement supported our very downbeat view of... 19th May 2016 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update South Africa: Weak economy will prompt SARB pause Lower-than-expected inflation and retail sales will probably lead the SARB to leave rates on hold at its meeting tomorrow. Output data suggest that South Africa narrowly avoided a fall in GDP in Q1. 18th May 2016 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update South Africa: Very weak showing in key sectors Declining output from the manufacturing and mining sectors underscore the weakness of South Africa’s economy. Given today’s grim figures – and the recent jump in unemployment – we expect that the SARB... 12th May 2016 · 1 min read
Metals Data Response South Africa’s Mine Production (Mar.) South Africa’s PGMs production rebounded in March, having fallen sharply in the first two months of the year, suggesting that mining firms have been enticed to raise output in response to higher... 12th May 2016 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update South Africa: Rising unemployment adds to political risk The rise of unemployment to a 12-year high is another grim milestone for South Africa. And with municipal elections coming up in August, today’s data may embolden populist figures hoping to capitalise... 9th May 2016 · 1 min read
Africa Data Response South Africa Consumer Prices (Mar.) Inflation eased a touch in March, but we still expect that it will rise over the duration of 2016. The current pause was mainly the result of strengthening rand. 20th April 2016 · 1 min read
Metals Data Response South Africa’s Mine Production (Feb.) South Africa’s PGM production fell sharply in February for the second consecutive month, suggesting that mining firms are finally cutting output in response to lower prices. Looking ahead, wages are... 14th April 2016 · 1 min read
