Africa Data Response South Africa Retail Sales (Jan.) The drop in retail sales growth is the latest figure that suggests that the South African economy lost momentum in January. We expect that GDP growth will be a below-consensus 0.5%. 16th March 2016 · 1 min read
Africa Data Response South Africa Manufacturing & Mining Output (Jan.) South Africa’s economy narrowly avoided an economic contraction Q4 2015, but the January output figures suggest that GDP may fall this quarter. 10th March 2016 · 1 min read
Africa Data Response South Africa Current Account (Q4) The larger-than-expected South African current account deficit in Q4 of last year highlights the country’s external vulnerabilities and means the rand is likely to remain under pressure. Coming... 8th March 2016 · 1 min read
Africa Data Response South Africa GDP (Q4) Weaker-than-expected Q4 GDP data from South Africa underline the economy’s sluggish growth prospects. At the margin, we suspect that these data make it less likely that the Reserve Bank will follow up... 1st March 2016 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update South Africa: 2016 budget falls short of expectations South Africa’s 2016 budget was a damp squib and is likely to dent the government’s recent efforts to regain economic policymaking credibility. While the budget is now based on more realistic growth... 24th February 2016 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Naira collapses as crisis deepens Strains in Nigeria’s balance of payments sent the country’s currency tumbling this month, at least on the parallel market, and we think the central bank will eventually have to devalue the official... 19th February 2016 · 1 min read
Precious Metals Update Platinum price to rally as industry braces for strikes The platinum price is set to recover in 2016 as production in South Africa contracts, necessitating a draw-down in the abundant above-ground stocks. We believe that there is a renewed risk of strike... 19th February 2016 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update South African economy probably avoided drop in GDP in Q4 South African retail sales figures for December, which showed another surprisingly strong year-on-year rise in purchases, suggest that the economy narrowly avoided a fall in GDP at the end of last... 17th February 2016 · 1 min read
Africa Data Response South Africa Consumer Prices (Jan.) South African inflation accelerated to 6.2% y/y in January in what we believe is the beginning of a food price-driven inflationary spike. Elevated inflation will add to dilemma facing the SARB. 17th February 2016 · 1 min read
Africa Data Response South Africa Manufacturing & Mining Output (Dec.) The better-than-expected South African manufacturing and mining data for December provided a rare piece of good news for the economy, but even so it looks like GDP growth over Q4 as a whole probably... 11th February 2016 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update South Africa: Political risk adds to economic headwinds A legal case against President Jacob Zuma may further destabilise South Africa’s already febrile political situation. Increased political risk poses a very real threat to the country’s struggling... 10th February 2016 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update South Africa: Adjusting to life in the slow lane The latest data and surveys from South Africa have been even worse than we had expected, and we have downgraded our 2016 growth forecast to a below-consensus 0.5%. A prolonged period of slow growth... 4th February 2016 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update South Africa: Rates hiked as economic outlook deteriorates The South African Reserve Bank has raised its key interest rate from 6.25% to 6.75% as inflation concerns outweighed worries about weak growth. We expect the bank will be forced to hike by another... 28th January 2016 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update South Africa: Retail sales surprise, but outlook still grim November’s surprisingly buoyant retail sales figures provide a rare piece of good news for South Africa’s struggling economy. But we expect that rising inflation and tightening monetary policy will... 20th January 2016 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update South Africa: Rate hike still likely, despite weak output data South African mining output did not contract as sharply as was predicted in November, but the weakness of the economy will still put pressure on the SARB to slow its hiking cycle. Even so, with the... 14th January 2016 · 1 min read
Africa Data Response South Africa Manufacturing Output (Nov.) The sharper-than-expected decline of South African manufacturing output in November suggests that GDP growth will disappoint in Q4. Worse, it seems that the hobbled manufacturing sector has not been... 12th January 2016 · 1 min read
