Africa Economics Update South Africa: Retail sales data point to Q2 rebound The statement accompanying the Hungarian MPC’s meeting earlier today, at which the policy rate was left on hold at 0.90%, gave no sign that monetary easing is on the Council’s agenda. But we think... 17th August 2016 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update South Africa: Latest data suggests economy dodged recession June’s manufacturing and mining figures support our view that the South African economy expanded by about 1.5% q/q (saar) in Q2, thus avoiding a technical recession. We still expect that the economy... 11th August 2016 · 1 min read
Metals Data Response South Africa’s Mine Production (Jun. 2016) While South Africa’s overall mine production shows tentative signs of recovery, the sector’s fortunes remain bleak for the time being. However, surging prices continued to encourage higher PGM output... 11th August 2016 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update South Africa: Local polls deliver blow to ANC Yesterday’s local elections suggest that South African elections may be becoming more competitive. Foreign investors will probably welcome the fact that reduced support for the ruling ANC has helped... 4th August 2016 · 1 min read
Africa Data Response South Africa Manufacturing PMI (July) South Africa’s manufacturing PMI slipped a bit in July, but it still points to manufacturing output growth of about 5.0%. 1st August 2016 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Africa: Naira finally breaking free The Central Bank of Nigeria has loosened its grip on the naira in recent days, causing us to review our forecast. Elsewhere, South Africa’s equities and currency have outperformed. 28th July 2016 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update South Africa: SARB delays again, but further hike still likely The weakness of South Africa’s economy prompted the MPC to hold off hiking interest rates today, but we still think there is room for additional monetary tightening later in the year. For now, we... 21st July 2016 · 1 min read
Africa Data Response South Africa Consumer Prices (June) Last month’s rise in South African inflation, to 6.3% y/y, took the headline rate further above the Reserve Bank’s target range, and both we and the Bank expect it to edge higher over the rest of this... 20th July 2016 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update S. Africa: current account to remain in deficit, rand under pressure A string of positive trade figures released over the past few months has raised hopes that South Africa’s balance of payments position might finally improve. In this Watch, however, we explain why the... 19th July 2016 · 1 min read
Metals Data Response South Africa’s Mine Production (May) South Africa’s overall mine production remained subdued in May, but PGM output grew strongly. This perhaps reflects producers building up their stocks in preparation for the wage negotiations with... 14th July 2016 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update South Africa: Economy probably dodged recession in Q2 Activity data for May suggest that South Africa’s economy has improved after contracting in Q1. We expect that the economy returned to growth in Q2, narrowly missing a technical recession. 14th July 2016 · 1 min read
Africa Data Response South Africa Manufacturing Output (May) Strong May manufacturing figures add to the evidence that South Africa’s economy avoided a recession in Q2. The sector seems to be benefiting from the weak rand. 12th July 2016 · 1 min read
Africa Data Response South Africa Business Confidence (June) South Africa’s business confidence index remained weak in June, though it rose from the all-time low in May. Other surveys – and timely activity data – suggest that the economy probably avoided a... 6th July 2016 · 1 min read
Africa Data Response South Africa Manufacturing PMI (Jun.) June’s surprisingly positive PMI reading provides another sign that South Africa’s economy narrowly avoided a recession in Q2. 1st July 2016 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update South Africa: recession avoidable, stagnation may not be The surprisingly bad fall in South African GDP in Q1 has raised fears that the economy could enter recession in Q2. We’ll know more in the next few weeks as May’s activity figures are published, but... 28th June 2016 · 1 min read
Africa Data Response S. Africa Current Account (Q1) & Nigeria Inflation (May) The widening of South Africa’s current account deficit in Q1 will keep pressure on the country’s currency, supporting our view that monetary policy will be tightened. Similarly, higher inflation in... 14th June 2016 · 1 min read
