Africa Economics Update South Africa: Economy contracts, but worst now behind us Figures released today confirmed that South Africa’s economy contracted again in Q4. But the underlying figures support our view that growth will pick up faster than most expect in 2017 7th March 2017 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Focus S. Africa: Growth to accelerate, but recovery won’t last After a grim 2016, growth in South Africa will recover more quickly than most expect, reaching 2.0% in 2017 and 1.7% in 2018. But this would still be a woeful outcome for a country at South Africa’s... 3rd March 2017 · 2 mins read
Africa Data Response South Africa Manufacturing PMI (Feb.) South Africa’s manufacturing PMI is the latest indicator to suggest that the economy improved at the start of 2017. We expect that growth will accelerate this year. 1st March 2017 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update South Africa’s fiscal squeeze continues South Africa’s budget for the 2017/18 fiscal year, which envisages a fiscal squeeze of around 0.5% of GDP, looks a bit more plausible than previous budget projections. But it now seems that domestic... 22nd February 2017 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update South Africa: Economy stagnated in Q4 December’s retail sales figures were weaker than expected, but tepid growth in the sector was still probably enough to prevent the South African economy from contracting in Q4. 15th February 2017 · 1 min read
Africa Data Response South Africa Consumer Prices (Jan.) The sharper-than-expected decline in South African inflation – particularly core inflation – last month supports our view that the country’s monetary tightening cycle is now over. 15th February 2017 · 1 min read
Metals Data Response South Africa’s Mine Production (Dec. & 2016) South Africa’s overall mine production fell in 2016, with all the main metals seeing a drop in output. The PGM market appears finally to be tightening but we think that it will take some time to rise... 9th February 2017 · 1 min read
Africa Data Response South Africa Manufacturing Production (Dec.) The sharper-than-expected 2.0% y/y fall in South African manufacturing production in December appears to be related primarily to working day effects. The underlying trend appears to be one of very... 9th February 2017 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update South African consumer spending set to remain weak The jump in South African retail sales in November has raised hopes in some quarters that consumer spending could be on the brink of a recovery. However, as we explain in this Watch, there are strong... 8th February 2017 · 1 min read
Africa Data Response South Africa Manufacturing PMI (Jan.) The significant improvement of South Africa’s manufacturing PMI is a rare positive surprise. But given the measure’s mixed performance in recent months, we will wait for more data before seriously... 1st February 2017 · 1 min read
Africa Chart Pack Africa: latest data confirm very weak growth in late 2016 Data published over the past month provided further evidence that economic growth in the region was very sluggish towards the end of last year. Q3 GDP figures did, admittedly, show that growth picked... 26th January 2017 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update SARB sounds inflation warning The hawkish statement by the South African MPC today is likely to focus attention in the markets on the possibility of rate hikes over the coming months. However, while inflation will remain well... 24th January 2017 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update South Africa: Inflation to end 2017 lower than it started Higher fuel prices will keep South Africa’s headline inflation rate above the Reserve Bank’s target range over the first quarter of this year, but slowing food inflation will bring it back within... 19th January 2017 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update South Africa: retail spending a bright spot, but economy weak South Africa’s surprisingly strong retail sales figures for November provided a rare piece of good news, but the economy remains extremely weak. And there’s still a significant chance that GDP... 18th January 2017 · 1 min read
Metals Data Response South Africa’s Mine Production (Nov.) South Africa’s overall mine production remained subdued in November, with all metals seeing a drop in output. The PGM market appears finally to be tightening but we think that it will take some time... 17th January 2017 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Côte d’Ivoire: Political turbulence won’t knock economy off course Last week’s abortive army mutiny has focused attention on the political fragility of Côte d’Ivoire, which suffered a series of political and economic crises between 1993 and 2011. But we expect that... 13th January 2017 · 1 min read
