Metals Data Response South Africa’s Mine Production (May) PGM output continued to fall in May as years of underinvestment have started to take their toll on production. The release of the new Mining Charter, if unchanged, is only likely to worsen what is... 13th July 2017 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Institutional worries: Looking beyond South Africa Increased political criticism of the South African Reserve Bank has focused attention on threats to the country’s key economic institutions. But, as we’ve written before, we think that most of these... 13th July 2017 · 1 min read
Africa Data Response South Africa Consumer Confidence (Q1 & Q2) Despite a string of political shocks, South African consumer confidence was higher in Q2 2017 than it was over most of 2016. This supports our view that the worst is over for the country’s troubled... 12th July 2017 · 1 min read
Africa Data Response South Africa Manufacturing Production (May) South African manufacturing data for May show that the sector’s contraction eased in the middle of Q2. Combined with a pickup in consumer spending, this supports our view that GDP growth returned to... 11th July 2017 · 1 min read
Africa Economic Outlook Recovery in top economies will drive African rebound We expect that growth in Sub-Saharan Africa will accelerate over the coming years as the three largest economies in the region – South Africa, Nigeria and Angola – recover from recent recessions... 7th July 2017 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update South Africa: ANC divided, but moderates fight back The ANC’s policy conference highlighted divisions within the party, and suggested a significant pushback against its recent leftist turn. While the president’s more populist faction is weakened, a... 6th July 2017 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update South Africa: Consumer spending set to pick up in Q2 The surprise contraction of consumer spending in Q1 was largely due to distortions caused by the growing popularity of “Black Friday” sales. We expect that spending picked up in Q2 as these faded. 5th July 2017 · 1 min read
Precious Metals Update How will South Africa’s mining charter affect PGM output? South Africa’s controversial new mining charter will probably exacerbate the decline in the PGM sector. Higher costs, in tandem with lower foreign investment, could weigh on PGM production going... 3rd July 2017 · 1 min read
Africa Data Response South Africa Manufacturing PMI (Jun) The sharp fall in South Africa’s manufacturing PMI suggests that the sector struggled towards the end of Q2. But we would caution against reading too much into an indicator that has become... 3rd July 2017 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Africa: Currencies struggle, but equities remain strong Most African currencies weakened in June, though Nigeria’s was a key exception. The naira will probably stay pretty stable on both the official and parallel rates. 29th June 2017 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update South Africa: Mining charter an ominous sign of things to come Revisions to the charter governing South Africa’s mining sector have been opposed by the industry and rattled the markets. In this Watch, we examine the industry’s complaints, explain the political... 28th June 2017 · 1 min read
Africa Chart Pack Africa: Key economies pick up in Q2 After a very poor start to the year, most of Africa’s larger economies bounced back at the start of Q2. South African activity data suggest that the region’s most industrialised economy returned to... 23rd June 2017 · 1 min read
Africa Data Response South Africa CPI (May) Inflation in South Africa ticked up in May, but we still expected that inflation will ease later this year, prompting the Reserve Bank to cut its key policy rate by a total of 50bps. 21st June 2017 · 1 min read
Africa Data Response South Africa Current Account (Q1) South Africa’s current account deficit widened a touch in Q1, but remained small by recent standards. This will help to shield the rand from the effect of political shocks. 20th June 2017 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update South Africa: Economy bouncing back in Q2 The first activity data from the start of Q2 suggest that South Africa’s economy recovered after the grim performance in Q1. This supports our view that growth has held up better than most expected. 14th June 2017 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update South Africa: Economy struggled at start of Q2 April’s activity data suggest that South Africa’s economy remained weak at the start of Q2. Next week’s retail sales figures will give us a clearer indication of whether crucial consumer-facing... 8th June 2017 · 1 min read
