Africa Economics Update South Africa: SARB shifting towards a cut Today’s statement by the governor of the SARB suggests that policymakers will look through the current political crisis. Indeed, the tone of the statement – and the fact that one member voted for a... 30th March 2017 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update South Africa: A guide to the latest Zuma-Gordhan struggle In this Update, we provide several scenarios outlining how the political drama sparked by rumours that Finance Minister Pravin Gordhan will be sacked could develop, and what it means for markets. 29th March 2017 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update South Africa: Rumours of cabinet reshuffle rock rand Were Pravin Gordhan to actually be removed, we think that the rand could fall by another 5% against the USD. Even if he receives another stay of execution, economic factors will cause the currency to... 28th March 2017 · 1 min read
Africa Data Response South Africa CPI (Feb.) & Current Account (Q4) The falls in South African inflation last month and in the current account deficit in Q4 (data all released today) support our non-consensus view that the Reserve Bank will lower interest rates by... 22nd March 2017 · 1 min read
Africa Economic Outlook Africa’s economies finally turning the corner We believe that the economic cycle in Sub-Saharan Africa is turning; after slowing since 2014, growth will accelerate this year. This turnaround will be driven by both global and local factors. The... 16th March 2017 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update South Africa: Retail sales stumble The fall in retail sales in January is disappointing given the improving picture painted by yesterday’s mining and manufacturing figures. Even so, we expect that growth will pick up later in the year... 15th March 2017 · 1 min read
Metals Data Response South Africa’s Mine Production (Jan.) South Africa’s overall mine production recovered slightly in January, as higher prices acted as an incentive for producers to increase output. The strength in the output data was broad-based, with... 14th March 2017 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update South Africa: Output figures suggest growth picking up The latest output figures all support our view that the worst of South Africa’s economic slump is now behind us. We expect that economic growth will pick up faster than most expect in 2017. 14th March 2017 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Africa: Agriculture to drive growth in key economies The drought which hit a large part of Africa in 2015 and 2016 had a sizeable impact on economies in the South and East of the continent. Improving conditions will boost GDP growth in South Africa and... 10th March 2017 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update South Africa grants crisis: Edging towards the cliff edge The looming shutdown of South Africa’s social grant system could temporarily cut consumption by about 0.4%-pts of GDP per month. Policymakers will probably be able to fudge a last-minute deal to keep... 8th March 2017 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update South Africa: Economy contracts, but worst now behind us Figures released today confirmed that South Africa’s economy contracted again in Q4. But the underlying figures support our view that growth will pick up faster than most expect in 2017 7th March 2017 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Focus S. Africa: Growth to accelerate, but recovery won’t last After a grim 2016, growth in South Africa will recover more quickly than most expect, reaching 2.0% in 2017 and 1.7% in 2018. But this would still be a woeful outcome for a country at South Africa’s... 3rd March 2017 · 2 mins read
Africa Data Response South Africa Manufacturing PMI (Feb.) South Africa’s manufacturing PMI is the latest indicator to suggest that the economy improved at the start of 2017. We expect that growth will accelerate this year. 1st March 2017 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update South Africa’s fiscal squeeze continues South Africa’s budget for the 2017/18 fiscal year, which envisages a fiscal squeeze of around 0.5% of GDP, looks a bit more plausible than previous budget projections. But it now seems that domestic... 22nd February 2017 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update South Africa: Economy stagnated in Q4 December’s retail sales figures were weaker than expected, but tepid growth in the sector was still probably enough to prevent the South African economy from contracting in Q4. 15th February 2017 · 1 min read
Africa Data Response South Africa Consumer Prices (Jan.) The sharper-than-expected decline in South African inflation – particularly core inflation – last month supports our view that the country’s monetary tightening cycle is now over. 15th February 2017 · 1 min read
