Africa Rapid Response South Africa’s Election The early results from South Africa’s election which took place yesterday point to the ruling ANC securing a vote share closer to the low end of projections (at just over 40%), increasing the chances... 30th May 2024 · 3 mins read
Africa Chart Pack Africa Chart Pack (May. 2024) Regional growth appears to have stabilised in Q1 and we think that a better external environment will provide a boost in the near term. Still, we think GDP growth will undershoot consensus... 28th May 2024 · 0 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly SA elections: Can the ANC hold on? Kenya-US visit There’s less than a week to go until South Africa’s pivotal election and there remains significant uncertainty about the ANC’s likely vote share and, if it’s forced to go into coalition, who it will... 24th May 2024 · 7 mins read
Global Markets Update Worst may not be over yet for South African financial assets Having underperformed most other EMs since the pandemic, we think that returns of financial assets in South Africa will continue to disappoint. The outlook would worsen if the African National... 23rd May 2024 · 4 mins read
Africa Economics Focus South Africa’s election: into the unknown? South Africa’s upcoming election looks set to herald a new era of coalition government. There are lots of permutations ranging from a centrist ANC-DA coalition to a so-called ‘doomsday coalition’ in... 23rd May 2024 · 18 mins read
Africa Rapid Response South Africa Consumer Prices (Apr.) South Africa’s headline inflation rate eased further to 5.2% y/y in April but the Reserve Bank will want to see more evidence that inflation and, crucially, inflation expectations are coming under... 22nd May 2024 · 2 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly ANC bets on health insurance bill, Nigeria inflation South African President Ramaphosa's approval of the controversial National Health Insurance bill this week was a clear effort to bolster the ANC’s support ahead of the election. But it also signals... 17th May 2024 · 8 mins read
FX Markets Update Rand strength likely to reverse course soon Despite the rand’s recent outperformance, we think risks around the upcoming election in South Africa, among other factors, will cause renewed weakness in the currency before long. In view of wider... 15th May 2024 · 3 mins read
Africa Economics Update S. Africa’s economy on the backfoot ahead of election The latest hard activity data suggest that South Africa’s economy contracted in the first quarter of 2024 and, regardless of the outcome of the upcoming election, this ongoing weakness will put... 15th May 2024 · 3 mins read
Africa Economics Focus South Africa: a closer look at the EFF’s policies A key concern around South Africa’s upcoming election is that the left-wing Economic Freedom Fighters (EFF) could get into government as part of what’s being dubbed in some quarters as a “doomsday... 14th May 2024 · 15 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly SA elections and inflation target, Angola debt Electioneering in South Africa heated up this week as parties openly warned of the different scenarios that could emerge after this month’s polls. The scenario that is most worrying remains a left... 10th May 2024 · 7 mins read
Africa Economics Update How can South Africa tackle its public debt problem? The South African government has turned to fiscal austerity in an effort to stabilise the public debt ratio and to keep investors on board, but this is likely to become harder to do post-election... 9th May 2024 · 4 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly SA growth, Nigeria petrol subsidy, Kenya floods South Africa’s manufacturing PMI for April released this week added to the evidence that growth will pick up over the coming quarters. But stronger growth is coming too late to help the ANC’s election... 3rd May 2024 · 5 mins read
Africa Data Response South Africa Manufacturing PMI (Apr.) South Africa’s manufacturing PMI jumped in April, adding to signs the economy is finally moving on from stagnation as the electricity situation improves. And with price pressures still elevated, the... 2nd May 2024 · 2 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly No SARB rate cuts in 2024, SSA subsidy removal The SARB’s biannual Monetary Policy Review published this week, which showed less confidence in South Africa’s disinflation trend and reiterated the desire to move to a lower inflation target... 26th April 2024 · 5 mins read
Africa Chart Pack Africa Chart Pack (Apr. 2024) Regional growth appears to have picked up in Q1 and we think that will continue, helped by an improved external environment. But inflation is set to fall back more slowly than previously expected... 25th April 2024 · 0 mins read
