Africa Economics Update South Africa: Consumer spending set to pick up in Q2 The surprise contraction of consumer spending in Q1 was largely due to distortions caused by the growing popularity of “Black Friday” sales. We expect that spending picked up in Q2 as these faded. 5th July 2017 · 1 min read
Precious Metals Update How will South Africa’s mining charter affect PGM output? South Africa’s controversial new mining charter will probably exacerbate the decline in the PGM sector. Higher costs, in tandem with lower foreign investment, could weigh on PGM production going... 3rd July 2017 · 1 min read
Africa Data Response South Africa Manufacturing PMI (Jun) The sharp fall in South Africa’s manufacturing PMI suggests that the sector struggled towards the end of Q2. But we would caution against reading too much into an indicator that has become... 3rd July 2017 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Africa: Currencies struggle, but equities remain strong Most African currencies weakened in June, though Nigeria’s was a key exception. The naira will probably stay pretty stable on both the official and parallel rates. 29th June 2017 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update South Africa: Mining charter an ominous sign of things to come Revisions to the charter governing South Africa’s mining sector have been opposed by the industry and rattled the markets. In this Watch, we examine the industry’s complaints, explain the political... 28th June 2017 · 1 min read
Africa Chart Pack Africa: Key economies pick up in Q2 After a very poor start to the year, most of Africa’s larger economies bounced back at the start of Q2. South African activity data suggest that the region’s most industrialised economy returned to... 23rd June 2017 · 1 min read
Africa Data Response South Africa CPI (May) Inflation in South Africa ticked up in May, but we still expected that inflation will ease later this year, prompting the Reserve Bank to cut its key policy rate by a total of 50bps. 21st June 2017 · 1 min read
Africa Data Response South Africa Current Account (Q1) South Africa’s current account deficit widened a touch in Q1, but remained small by recent standards. This will help to shield the rand from the effect of political shocks. 20th June 2017 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update South Africa: Economy bouncing back in Q2 The first activity data from the start of Q2 suggest that South Africa’s economy recovered after the grim performance in Q1. This supports our view that growth has held up better than most expected. 14th June 2017 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update South Africa: Economy struggled at start of Q2 April’s activity data suggest that South Africa’s economy remained weak at the start of Q2. Next week’s retail sales figures will give us a clearer indication of whether crucial consumer-facing... 8th June 2017 · 1 min read
Metals Data Response South Africa’s Mine Production (Apr.) PGM output had a strong start to the year but the latest figures suggest that it has already started to wane. We expect production to fall in the remainder of the year as the platinum price treads... 8th June 2017 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update South Africa: In recession even before Gordhan sacking New data show that South Africa’s economy was already contracting before the latest political drama. While we think that things will get better later in the year, risks to our above-consensus growth... 6th June 2017 · 1 min read
Africa Data Response South Africa Manufacturing PMI (May) Having fallen sharply in April, South Africa’s manufacturing PMI surged May. We don’t put much faith in this indicator, but today’s reading supports our view that the economy is holding up better than... 1st June 2017 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Africa: Rand driven by politics, most markets strengthen South Africa’s ongoing political drama caused the rand to wobble this month, but the currency soon stabilised. Equities across the region performed well, with Nigerian stocks leading the charge. 31st May 2017 · 1 min read
Africa Chart Pack Africa: Zuma, health concerns put politics centre stage Events over the past month have raised questions about the positions of the presidents of Sub-Saharan Africa’s three largest economies. Nigeria’s President Muhammadu Buhari missed a key speech... 30th May 2017 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update South Africa: MPC strikes a dovish tone Today’s MPC statement from the governor of the South African Reserve Bank supports our nonconsensus view that policymakers will cut their key policy rate to 6.50% by the end of the year. 25th May 2017 · 1 min read
