Africa Economics Update South Africa: downgrade largely priced in Fears that bond yields could jump sharply and that the rand could sell off if Moody’s and S&P cut South Africa’s local currency debt to junk status later today look a bit overblown. Much of the bad... 24th November 2017 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update SARB takes further easing off the table The South African Reserve Bank (SARB) made it pretty clear at today’s MPC meeting, at which the policy rate was left unchanged at 6.75%, that any additional easing is off the cards. As a result, we... 23rd November 2017 · 1 min read
Africa Data Response South Africa CPI (Oct.) The decline in South African headline inflation last month, to 4.8% y/y, and softening core price pressures may temper expectations in the market for interest rate hikes in the next few months. But... 22nd November 2017 · 1 min read
Precious Metals Update PGM prices got ahead of themselves After years of oversupply, there are now clear signs that the PGM market is tightening. Falling mine supply should help the market to rebalance, but a higher rate of recycling could put a cap on... 10th November 2017 · 1 min read
Africa Data Response South Africa Manufacturing PMI South Africa’s manufacturing PMI recovered a bit in October, but remained very low. Given that it has overstated the weakness of the economy in recent quarters, we wouldn’t read much into today’s... 1st November 2017 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update South Africa: Deficit a symptom of broader malaise Today’s Medium Term Budget Policy speech confirmed that South Africa’s fiscal position has deteriorated since February. But the deficit – which is not as worrying as some seem to think – is the result... 25th October 2017 · 1 min read
Africa Chart Pack Looking beyond the politics Attention this month has focused on political stories in Kenya, South Africa, and Angola. We will continue to cover these issues in other publications. While economic data released over the past month... 24th October 2017 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update South Africa: Markets mispricing interest rate moves Market expectations towards South African interest rates have shifted markedly in recent weeks. While a rate cut next month is no-longer likely, we think that the markets have moved too far, and are... 20th October 2017 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update South Africa: Growth remained robust in Q3 New activity data suggest that South Africa’s long-suffering economy experienced comparatively robust growth in mid-Q3. Today’s figures support our markedly above-consensus growth forecasts. 18th October 2017 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update South Africa: Economy remained strong in Q3 After bouncing back in Q2, the latest activity data suggest that South Africa’s economy remained strong in mid-Q3. This supports our above-consensus growth forecasts for the country. 12th October 2017 · 1 min read
Africa Chart Pack A Multispeed Recovery GDP figures released this month showed that the economic fortunes of Africa’s largest economies diverged in Q2. South Africa’s economy rebounded after a brief recession at the turn of the year. While... 27th September 2017 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update South African loosening cycle put on hold The South African Reserve Bank has paused its loosening cycle, but we expect that it will cut rates at its November meeting, by which time inflation will have eased further. 21st September 2017 · 1 min read
Africa Data Response South Africa CPI (Aug.) Inflation in South Africa was weaker than expected in August, which supports our view that the South African Reserve Bank will cut its key policy rate from 6.75% to 6.50% at its meeting tomorrow. 20th September 2017 · 1 min read
Africa Data Response South Africa Current Account (Q2) South Africa’s current account deficit was wider than expected in Q2, at 2.4% of GDP, but the big picture is that it has narrowed significantly over the past 18 months. The slightly wider shortfall is... 14th September 2017 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update South Africa: Growth slips at start of Q3 July activity data suggest that South Africa’s economy weakened at the start of Q3. But GDP still grew by about 1.5% q/q saar at the start of Q3, supporting our above-consensus growth forecasts. 13th September 2017 · 1 min read
Africa Data Response South Africa Manufacturing & Mining Output (July) South African mining data for July were weaker than expected but, taken together with the manufacturing figures also released today, it looks like the economy may have strengthened a little at the... 7th September 2017 · 1 min read
